【作者】 张思伟；

【导师】 马寿峰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着生活质量的提高,人们的时间观念也越来越强烈,在追求旅行安全和快捷的同时,人们对出行可靠性方面的要求也越来越强烈,因此路网可靠性研究越来越引起人们的重视。路网可靠性研究不仅可以给出路网可靠性的数值,以提供给使用者(交通管理者和出行者)需要的信息;而且可靠性的研究可以给出提高路网可靠性的方法,以避免交通极端事件(如堵塞、自然灾害等)造成路网瘫痪。以往的路网可靠性研究一般都是将工程领域的可靠性研究方法引入路网,这些研究都存在着诸多问题,如研究体系不够完整、计算方法不可行、指标过多等等。本文正是在综合分析以往研究存在的不足的基础上,建立了一种基于风险分析的路网可靠性研究方法——RBR(Risk-based reliability)。RBR考察的是在一定概率水平下,出行者在未来一段时间内通过某路径最大可能花费的出行费用。因为出行费用是出行者出行所需要承担的风险,因此RBR称为基于风险的可靠性。RBR有着它自身的优点,如指标统一;计算体系完整,有实际可行的计算方法和检验方法;应用前景广阔等。文章首先讨论了路网可靠性研究的意义以及以往研究存在的诸多缺陷。针对这些缺陷,文章给出了RBR严格的定义,分析了RBR的特点及与其他可靠性的关系;然后,文章给出了RBR的三种计算方法——历史模拟法、分析方法和MonteCarlo方法,并通过具体的实例验证了所提出的各种计算方法;接着,文章给出了RBR计算的检验方法,从而完善了RBR计算体系;之后,文章给出了RBR在交通管理中的几种可能应用,提出了OD对RBR、网络RBR的定义及计算思路,并尝试将RBR应用于交通诱导中,通过仿真试验和与其他方法进行比较,说明了RBR在应用中的有效性;最后,文章做出了结论并对RBR的未来发展前景做出了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays people pay more and more attention to the travel reliability except forthe fastness and safety. So, a lot researches are being done in this area. The researchnot only will give an assessment of road network reliability, which is needed by bothtraffic managers and travellers, but also will tell how to strengthen the road network toavoid the strike of extreme traffic occassions, such as big jams and some unexpecteddisasters.But the previous researches on road network reliability only implant thereliability notion in Engineering field, so there exist some mismatches, for example,the incompleteness of the theory system, the incompetence of the calculation method,too much indices to describe one problem and so on. Based on these problems, we doresearch on a new method to analyze the reliability of road network, which isRBR(Risk-based Reliability). RBR is the largest possible (with certain possibility)travel cost of travelers who travel through certain path at certain time. For that thecost is the risk travlers have to take when traveling, so it is named “risk-based”. RBRgets its advantages such as: depicting road network reliability with one index, acomplete calculation system with both feasible calculation methods and proof-testmethods, a prosperous outlook of useful application and so on.At first, the paper discusses the meaning to do this research and the problems ofprevious researches. After the basic definition and analysis of RBR, three calculationmethods are proposed—— Historical Simulation Method, Analysis Method andMonte Carlo Simulation Method, which are verified by simulation experimentsindividually. Then the paper proposes two proof-test methods to make the calculationsystem complete. After that, some possible applications of RBR in the trafficmanagement of road network are discussed, where OD pair RBR and network RBRare proposed and RBR is used into the traffic guidance system, which testify thefeasibility of RBR applications with a simulation experiment and comparison withother methods. At last, conclusion is summarized and the prospects of the RBRresearch are proposed.更多还原