【作者】 王耀东；

【导师】 赵黎明；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 中国旅游业起步较晚,从改革开放后才真正开始了产业化发展,但在这二十多年的时间里,中国的旅游产业迅速壮大。随着中国经济社会的发展,中国已进入一个国内旅游大发展的临界点;同时,中国在世界旅游市场中的地位迅速提高,据世界旅游组织预测:到2020年中国将成为世界上最大的旅游目的地国家,同时也将成为世界十大旅游客源国之一。旅游业作为一项国际性新产业,开辟了众多的资金来源,增加了就业机会,促进了国际收入平衡;通过刺激消费的增长,带动了一系列相关产业的发展,活跃了旅游区的经济,旅游产业在国民经济中占有越来越重要的地位。在这样一个大的背景下,对旅游产业发展战略进行研究,对我国旅游产业实现长期、深入、健康发展具有重要意义。同时也是保证旅游产业自身以及与国民经济相关产业之间协调发展的内在要求。本文首先从理论的角度,阐述了旅游产业化、旅游产业战略的内涵,以及旅游产业战略研究的发展动态和主要思想方法;然后研究了我国旅游产业的发展现状,并对我国旅游产业发展的国际国内环境进行了分析,以从中发现旅游产业发展的机遇和制约因素,同时定性与定量相结合,依据旅游产业发展的历史数据,运用多元线性回归和灰色预测对我国旅游产业的需求进行了预测;最后在理论、现状分析及预测结果的基础上,提出了我国旅游产业发展的战略选择即战略目标,战略定位,发展模式选择,产业结构优化以及可持续发展战略,并提出了实现战略所应采取的具体措施和需要建立完善的支持条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 China tour industry starts evening, and has really begun the industrializationdevelopment from reform and open, but in this time of more than 20 years, China tourindustry developed quickly. Along with the development of China economy and society, China has enteredthe big critical point developed of an internal tour. At the same time, China’s positionin market of boundary tour is rapidly raised, according to the world tour organizationforecasting: China will become the nation of tour destination the biggest on the worldto 2020, and also will become one of big tour visitor source country of the world tenat the same time. Tourist industry is as the new industry of international nature, hasopened up multitudinous sources of fund, and has increased the chance obtainedemployment, and has promoted the international income to keep balance. By way ofthe increase that irritates consumption, having driven the development of the a seriesof correlations industries, brisk tour economy of area, the more and more importantposition is owned in national economy to the tour industry. Under the background, theindustrial development strategy being studied to traveling, and to our country travelsindustrially to realize over a long period of time and thoroughly and the healthilydevelopment to possess the important meaning. At the same time also is pledgingcoordinating the inherent requirement developed between tour industry self as well asand the national economy correlation industry. The angle of theory is firstly followed in this text, the intension of the strategyexpounded the tour industrialization and the tour industry, as well as the developmenttrends of tour industry strategy research and major method of thinking. Then havingstudied our country travels the industrial developing actuality, and to our countrytravels that the internal environment of industrial development has been in progressthe analysis, with the opportunity and restriction factor of there from industrialdevelopment of discovery traveling, determines the nature at the same time for eachother combining with the fixed quantity, according to tour industry develops thehistorical data, uses plurality linear regression and grey calculates to our country tourindustry the requirement has been in progress the forecasting. Finally based on thepresent situation analysis and the forecasting, having put forward our country travelsthe strategy selection namely strategy objective of the industrial development,strategy fixed position location, development model selection, the industrial structureoptimizes as well as can go on the development strategy, and puts forward realizes theconcrete measure that the strategy should be adopted and needs builds the perfectsupport condition.更多还原