【作者】 汤成友；

【导师】 缪韧； 官学文；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 水利工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 实施三峡水库调度,必须充分掌握长江上游的水情信息,并对洪水未来的变化趋势作出准确的预报。三峡水库蓄水后,在135m蓄水位入库控制站已移至清溪场站附近,175m蓄水位入库站将移至寸滩附近。目前,入库站至坝址的洪水传播时间缩短到仅24h左右,不能满足水库调度的需求。因此,向上拓展水情信息的收集范围,开展三峡水库入库站洪水预报水情站网论证和预报技术研究,延长预报预见期,提高预报精度,满足三峡水库调度需要,是十分必要且紧迫的。 三峡入库洪水预报流域面积50多万km~2,本文介绍了采用抽站法进行水情站网优化论证的方法。通过计算从603个水情站中确定了413个水情站,对现有水情站网进行了优化,为进一步修编三峡入库洪水预报方案、开展洪水预报技术研究、提高三峡入库洪水预报的精度奠定了基础。 水箱模型属于概念性水文模型,是日本水文学者菅原正已于50年代创建,60年代初正式提出的著名流域水文模型。该模型具有概念简单,计算方便,结构组合灵活等特点。我国在60年代以来开展了水箱模型的应用研究,上世纪80年代,河海大学李纪生等人在黄河、汉江东江等河流丌展了水箱模型的应用研究,全国其它水文部门也先后开展了一些水箱模型的适用性研究。但直至目前,大部分成果属于径流模拟计算和探索性研究,用于河系作业预报的具体成果尚更多还原

【Abstract】 It is very important for reservoir operation of Three Gorges to grasp hydrologic information of the upper Yangtze River and have an exact flood forecast result. After storaged water for Three Gorges , 135m storage level has been near Qingxichang, and 175m storage level will be near Cuntan. Now, the spread time of flow for input station to dam has shortened about 24h, it can’ t satisfy reservoir operation. So, it is necessary to extend the rang of hydrologic information collection, study on technology of flood forecast, optimize of hydrologic station netwotk for input flood forecast of Three Gorges reservoir, lengthen forecast period and improve the forecast precision.The forecast basin for Three Gorges is more than five hundred thousand square kilometers.This paper introduces the method of optimization of hydrologic station netwotk. 413 hydrologic stations have been selected form 603 stations according to the computed result, so it has optimizated the existing network. It establishes basis for modifying the forecast scheme, studying on the flood forecast technology and improving the forecast precision.Tank model is a conceptive hydrologic model invented by M. Sugawara from Japan in the 1950s and it is a famous basin model used from the 1960s. The characters of Tank model are simple conception, computingconveniently, and structure composed flexibly. In China, a lot of researches have been output about Tank model. In the 1980s , LI Ji-sheng , who was a professor from HoHai University, made a few researches about Tank model in Yellow River and Dongjiang River.Many other departments of hydrology have made many adaptable study on Tank model, too. But up to now, most results are about simulation of run off or exploring researches, Studying in real time flood forecast is very a few .Studying on applying Tank model to real time flood forecast and accumulating experience of application of basin hydrologic model are very necessary for department of hydrology forecast. However, many researches on Tank model are about middle or little basin. Therefore this research is a useful attempt for Tank model applying to large basin. Main river and branch river above Cun Tan are separated many reaches according to the spread time of flow, and every reach is separated many unit reaches according to the calculation time length. The local inflow in every unit reach is computed with Tank model, and the flow of stream is computed with the method of continous Muskingum. The precision of the river system flood forecast model is above 85%, and the result of real time flood forecast is satisfactory .This paper has only introduced the method of making river system flood forecast model during 24h forecast period for Cun tan and Wu long on upper Yangtze River.更多还原