【作者】 孙铁军；

【导师】 许小平；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 外贸出口是一个国家经济增长的重要推动力之一,因此研究影响外贸出口的因素就显得相当必要。另一方面,改革开放以来,外商直接投资(FDI)在我国的经济中的地位越来越重要,时至今日已成了我国经济不可或缺的一个组成部分。那么FDI和我国的外贸出口之间有没有关系?如果有,这种关系又是什么?这些正是本文所试图解决的主要问题。本文首先利用我国1979-2003年的时间序列数据,对我国吸收FDI和外贸出口进行简单的态势描述,并初步得出二者有相关关系的结论。然后,本文分别对FDI影响我国外贸出口总量和我国外贸出口结构问题进行了详细的分析。对FDI影响我国外贸出口总量的分析主要采用了理论和计量的方法:理论方面,重点介绍了蒙代尔(Mundell)和小岛清(K.Kojimz)模型,并介绍了现在流行的理论成果; 计量方面,主要采用了恩格尔(Engle)和葛兰杰(Grange)的时间序列分析方法,对二者的关系进行了相关分析,因果检验,并建立了相应的回归模型和误差纠正(ECM)模型。分析的结果表明,FDI确实能够促进我国外贸总量的提高,但其促进作用有一定的局限。外贸出口结构可以分为出口商品结构和出口地区结构。本文对FDI影响我国出口商品结构的分析主要采用了理论和定量的方法,结果表明,FDI有利于我国出口商品结构的提升,但是对劳动密集型产品的促进作用大于技术密集型产品; 对FDI影响我国出口地区结构的分析主要采用了理论和定性的方法,结果表明,FDI有利于改善我国出口地区结构,但二者不存在严格的函数关系。最后,本文还阐述了我国在引进FDI方面的不足,同时提出了相应的改善意见。更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign Export trade is one of the important driving powers to a country, so it is necessary to study the factors that can affect it. On the other hand, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been keeping developed since the reformation of China and made an indispensable part in our economic system nowadays. So, it is reasonable to ask if the two has a certain relationship? And what is it? The questions above are the main problems the author tries to solve. To start the analysis, the paper uses the time series data of FDI and export in china from 1979 to 2003 to make a description of the two. From the description, a basic conclusion was made that there is really a certain relationship between FDI and china’s exportation. Then, the paper gives a detailed analysis of how FDI affects the China’s exportation amount and exportation structure. This paper uses both theorical and metrical methods to research the relationship between FDI and china’s exportation amount. In theory, the paper mainly introduced the Mundell model, K.Kojimz model, and some modern results. In metric, the paper uses the full set of time series analysis method first advanced by Engle and Grange. According to that method, the paper makes correlation test, regression analysis and Granger test of causality to the relationship between FDI and China’s exportation amount, and forms the regression model and error correct model (ECM) of them. The study shows that FDI can really promote China’s exportation amount but that promotion is somehow limited. Foreign export structure has two means: export commodity structure and export destination structure. This paper uses both theorical and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between FDI and China’s export commodity structure, the results are that FDI can improve China’s export commodity structure, but the promotion is more obvious in labor-dense product than technology-dense products. And the paper uses both theorical and qualitative methods to analyze the relationship between FDI and China’s export destination structure, the results are that FDI can improve China’s exportation destination structure to a certain degree, but there isn’t a strict function relationship between them. At last, the paper also introduces some defects in China’s absorption of FDI and presents some ways to improve them.更多还原