【作者】 陈伟雄；

【导师】 刘海云；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 国际贸易， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 建立中国—东盟自由贸易区的构想起源于2000年在新加坡举行的东盟与中国“10+1”会议上。当时由朱镕基总理提出了构建中国—东盟自由贸易区的设想。自由贸易区建成后,市场的扩大、竞争的加剧、投资的增加以及生产规模的扩大,还会促进生产企业不断投资于科研和开发,从而推动技术不断进步。本文在对中国——东盟自由贸易区的相关理论做了一个全面而又扼要的回顾之后,明确地提出了区域经济一体化的概念,并在此基础上探讨了关税同盟理论、大市场理论、协议性国际分工原理和国家需要理论等理论。关税同盟建立后,可以产生贸易创造和贸易转移两种静态效应,此外还会产生规模经济、竞争强化和投资扩大等动态经济效应。因此,中国在开展区域经济协作的基础上,对对外贸易进行一体化协调,就可以整合区域对外贸易发展的各种优势,形成规模经济实力。同时,随着一体化协调的深化,也会强化区域竞争,促进资源的合理配置,并刺激区域投资的扩大,推动区域经济增长。对于建立CAFTA而言,宏观经济政策的协调是至关重要的。本文从财政和货币政策这两个角度进行了分析,然后具体分析了CAFTA的静态效应、动态效应和结构效应。静态效应主要包括区域经济规模、经济互补性和贸易壁垒的削减幅度三个影响因素。动态效应则从贸易转移效应、贸易创造效应和出口扩张效应三个方面进行分析。通过这些效应的分析不难看出,建立CAFTA可以产生一个多赢的局面,而且它的建立还将使中国加快利用产业国际化来推动产业升级和结构优化的步伐。但是,我们也要看到,构建CAFTA也不是一帆风顺的,它面临着许多难点。本文的最后一部分首先概述了构建CAFTA的难点,并在此基础上探讨了构建CAFTA的政策选择,其中包括扩大一体化收益、降低一体化成本、进行利益调节和控制一体化进程这四种政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The idea of establishing CAFTA originated from the “10+1” conference hold in Singapore in 2000. At that time Premier Zhu conceive of establishment of CAFTA. After construction of a free trade region, the wider market, severe competition, increasing investment and expanse of production scale will lead firms to increase R&D investment, thus resulting in technological progress. After a general and brief review on relative theory of CAFTA, this article brings forward the concept of regional economic integration, and analyzes the several theories. After set up of zollverein, it produces two static effects of trade diversion and trade creation, and other dynamic effects. Hence, on the basis of regional economic cooperation, China could integrative cooperates with foreign trade, and integrates all kinds of regional advantages of foreign trade to form strength of economic scale. Meanwhile, with deepening of integration cooperation, it will strengthen regional competition, promote sound allocation of sources, and stimulate to increase regional investment to promote increase of regional economy. For establishment of CAFTA, the harmony of macroeconomic policies is very crucial. The article analyzes the static effects, dynamic effects and structure effects from fiscal and monetary policies angle of view. Static effects mainly include regional economic scale and complementary economy. Dynamic effects are analyzed from three effects of trade diversion, trade creation and export extension. It can be obvious to see from above effects analysis that construction of CAFTA could be advantageous for every partner. Anyway, we have to notice that it is not easy to construct CAFTA, because it will confront many difficulties. The last part of the article summarizes these difficulties at first, on basis of which we discuss the choices of policies on establishment of CAFTA, which include increasing profits of integration, lowering integration costs, profits harmonies and controlling of integration process.更多还原