【作者】 谢静；

【导师】 陈乐一；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 政治经济学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 经济周期是国民经济运行过程中循环出现的经济波动现象,它表现为总体经济活跃与呆滞循环交替的过程。经济波动的研究是宏观经济学中一个十分重要的领域。我国经济发展的实践表明,自1953年我国开始大规模经济建设进入工业化进程以来,我国国民经济运行有起有落,表现出明显的周期波动性。 总需求波动是经济波动的重要原因,消费、投资及进出口作为总需求的重要组成部分,在乘数-加速数的作用下,消费、投资及进出口的扩张与收缩,将对经济波动产生重要影响。基于比较的观点,以国民收入恒等式、乘数-加速数模型、IS-LM-BP模型、AD-AS模型、产出缺口模型等为理论基础,运用经济计量模型,分析了我国经济波动与消费、投资及进出口之间的作用关系。改革之前,仅投资波动对经济波动的影响显著,消费、进出口对经济波动的影响不显著,我国经济波动是投资波动的结果。改革以来我国经济波动与投资、进出口之间存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系和短期的波动关系,20世纪90年代以来经济波动与消费之间存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系和短期的波动关系。改革以来消费对我国经济波动的影响上升很快,消费成为影响经济波动最灵敏的因素,投资对经济波动的影响其趋势在下降,但仍然是影响经济波动的重要力量,消费和投资成为影响经济波动的两大主要力量,进口和出口对经济波动的影响相对较小,尤其是净出口对经济波动的影响不明显。 凯恩斯的有效需求理论为政府对宏观经济的干预提供了理论基础,各国经济发展的实践表明,政府对宏观经济的“反周期”调控是影响经济波动的重要因素。在实证研究的基础上,运用Granger因果检验并建立政策方程模型,从宏观经济政策和经济波动监测与预警的角度,分析了我国经济波动与消费、投资及进出口之间的良性互动。今后要减缓我国经济波动幅度,延长经济周期波动的繁荣阶段,避免经济的“大起大落”,必须稳定投资,拉动消费,消费政策和投资政策协调配合,财政政策和货币政策协调配合,建立消费、投资和进出口监测与预警系统,主动对经济周期波动进行“反周期”调控。更多还原

【Abstract】 Business cycle is a business fluctuation phenomenon that is revolving in national economic circulation operation, it shows the alternative course of overall economic activity or dull. Research on business fluctuation is a very important field of macroeconomics. The economic development practice of China indicates that, since China began to enter industrialized process with extensively economic construction in 1953, the national economic circulation of China arises and falls, and demonstrates the prominent cycle fluctuation.Aggregate demand fluctuation is the important cause of business fluctuation, consumption, investment, imports & exports are regarded as important components of aggregate demand, under Multiplier-accelerator interaction, the expansion and contraction of consumption, investment, imports & exports will have an important influence on business fluctuation. On the basis of national income identity, Multiplier-accelerator model, IS-LM-BP model, AD-AS model, output gap model etc, we use econometric models to analyse the interactions between business fluctuation and consumption, investment, imports & exports of China. Before reform, only investment had remarkable influence on business fluctuation, while consumption and imports & exports hadn’t remarkable influence on business fluctuation, business fluctuation was the result of investment fluctuation of China. Since reform, there are long and steady dynamic equilibrium relationships and short-term fluctuation relationships between business fluctuation and investment, imports & exports of China. Since 1990s, there are long and steady dynamic equilibrium relationships and short-term fluctuation relationships between business fluctuation and consumption. Since reform, the interaction between business fluctuation and consumption of China rises quickly, consumption becomes the most sensitive factor of affecting business fluctuation, the interaction between business fluctuation and investment drops to some extent, but it is still the important strength of affecting business fluctuation, consumption and investment are two main strengths of affecting business fluctuation of China, the interactions between business fluctuation and imports, exports are small, the interaction between business fluctuation and net exports is not obvious.Keynes’ effective demand theory provides the theory foundation for government to intervene in macroeconomics, the practice of economic development in variouscountries indicated that, government adjust and control macroeconomics against cycle is the important factor which affects business fluctuation. On the basis of positive research, we use Granger-Causality test and set up the policy equation model, from the angles of macroeconomic policy and forecasting and pre-warning of business fluctuation, and analyse the interactions between business fluctuation and consumption, investment, imports & exports of China. It wants to slow down economic fluctuation range, and extension the prosperity phase of business cycle fluctuation, and avoid economic "big rise and big fall" in future, we must make investment steadily and expand consumption, consumption policy cooperating with investment policy, finance policy cooperating with monetary policy, and found consumption, investment, imports & exports forecasting and pre-warning systems, adjust and control business fluctuation against cycle initiatively.更多还原