【作者】 赵云飞；

【导师】 段献忠； 陈金富；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 电力负荷预测是电力系统规划的重要工作之一,准确的负荷预测是提高电力系统经济效益和社会效益的保证。本文致力于对负荷预测结果决策的研究,在对层次分析法决策理论进行深入的学习后,将改进的模糊层次分析法用于中长期负荷预测的结果决策。本文首先对层次分析法决策理论的基本原理和特点进行详细的介绍,对其在电力系统中的发电侧技术、输配电系统规划及运行和电力负荷预测等几个方面的应用进行综述。并根据其能够把定性信息利用标度法和判断矩阵进行量化的优势,指出该理论在电力系统的规划、运行和电力企业评估等方面有良好的应用前景。针对传统层次分析法的不足,本文对改进的模糊层次分析法的特点、原理、模糊一致判断矩阵和权重求解方法等问题进行深入的研究,并参照负荷预测相关规定和负荷资料的收集,对影响负荷发展的各种定性定量因素进行综合分析。据此针对某一地区的特点,建立了负荷预测递阶层次结构模型。算例表明,利用模糊层次分析法对中长期负荷预测的结果进行决策,可以提高负荷预测的精度。由于负荷曲线类的预测方法研究并不多见,而负荷曲线预测无论在电力系统规划中还是在电力市场中都是极其重要的。本文集中对年最大负荷曲线、年电量分布曲线和典型日负荷曲线的预测模型进行深入的探讨。并指出各模型方法的特点和适用范围,为今后的相关研究工作奠定基础。论文最后概要地介绍了基于上述理论模型,采用面向对象设计方法和客户/服务器方式开发完毕的负荷预测系统的结构设计框架、实现的功能和主要特点。并从预测功能、数据管理功能以及一些辅助功能等角度对该系统进行全面的介绍。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power load forecasting is one of the important parts in power system planning. An accurate power load forecasting is beneficial socially as well as economically in power system. This thesis is aim to express the result decision on the research of load forecasting. After study thoroughly on the decision theory of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the improved fuzzy AHP is employed to the decision of mid-long term load forecasting result. First, this thesis introduces the fundamental background and characteristic of AHP. Next, summaries of the application in generation side technology, transmission and distribution network planning, power load forecasting, etc are described in details. Qualitative information can be analyzed quantitatively thru the scaling method and judgment matrix of AHP. Prior to this, the thesis emphasizing that AHP have an excellent application foreground in terms of power system planning, operation and the evaluation of power companies in power system market. Due to the shortcoming of traditional AHP, the thesis shows the efforts of research and study of the improved FAHP, including its characteristic, fundamental background, fuzzy consistent judgment matrix and weight solution method. Various qualitative and quantitative factors which can affect the development of power load are analyzed according to the interrelated prescript and some collected information. Focusing onto a certain point, a recursion order hierarchy structure model of load forecasting has been built in this thesis. The collected results and fact shows that forecasting precision can be improved by employing FAHP on decision of mid-long term load forecasting result. The research and study on load curve forecasting methods did not carried further, however, those are still very important in power system planning and power market. It gives a thorough study on three kinds of load curve forecasting models in this thesis. It also points out the characteristic and application range of those models, and hence the basis of correlative research work in the future is established. Finally, based on the models mentioned above, this thesis also introduces structural design frame, applications and the major characteristic of the developed load forecasting system through the methods of OOD and client/server pattern. The function of forecasting, function in data management and some other supplementary functions are also introduced in this thesis.更多还原