【作者】 刘为凯；

【导师】 刘先忠；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 概率论与数理统计， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 政府在社会经济体中具有多方面的职能,如:征税、发行国债、用于公共目的的政府开支等。该文在三个连续时间的随机内生经济增长模型中,考虑政府的这些职能,从不同的角度分析了政府的财政政策对宏观经济和社会福利的影响。首先,把政府公共开支分为消费性和生产性开支两部分,在政府开支不确定的条件下,将政府消费性开支的平均值纳入代表性行为者的效用函数,与私人消费乘数性地相关联,并且具有不变弹性,将政府生产性支出的平均值引入生产函数。在这种设定下,建立了连续时间的随机增长模型,利用动态最优化的方法,确定了宏观均衡解。通过模型,讨论了两类政府开支和随机扰动对经济增长率的影响,导出了政府支出的最优构成。其次,采用跨期替代弹性与相对风险厌恶系数相对独立的非期望效用函数,建立了一个具有生产性政府支出的随机经济增长模型,利用随机最优化的方法,确定了均衡状态下的消费—资本比、随机经济增长率。分析了产出的随机扰动、税后私人资本的回报率以及税收对经济增长、消费—资本比和社会福利的影响,并且确定了最优收入税的税率。最后,在第二个模型的基础上,引入具有不确定性回报率的政府债券,考虑消费税,且将收入税分为确定性部分收入税和随机部分收入税,建立了随机增长模型,内生确定了政府债券的随机回报率,分析了财政政策对增长率及消费倾向的影响。本章在环境不确定的条件下研究经济增长,所得出的结论对于政府财政政策的制定具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Government has multi-aspect functions in the social economy system, for instance: imposing, issuing bonds and government public expenditure etc. In this paper, we develop three continuous-time stochastic models of endogenous economic growth considering government, and discuss the effect of fiscal policy to macroeconomic and social welfare. First, considering government expenditure under uncertainty, the average level of government consumption expenditure appears in the utility function of representative agent multiplicatively with private consumption and with a constant elasticity. And the average level of government productive expenditure is introduced to production function. Government expenditure encompasses productive and consumptive expenditure. The paper develops a stochastic model of endogenous growth with the assumption. By the method of dynamic optimization, the macroeconomic equilibrium is derived. And then, the model is used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of government expenditure and stochastic disturbance on economic growth. The optimal size of government is derived. Second, adopting non-expected utility in which the intertemporal substitution elasticity and relative risk aversion coefficient is relatively independent, the paper develops a stochastic model of endogenous economic growth with government productive expenditure. By the method of stochastic optimization, the consumption-capital ratio and stochastic growth rate of economy are derived in the equilibrium state. And then, this paper examines the effects of stochastic productive shocks, average after-tax capital return and income taxation on economic growth, consumption-capital ratio and social welfare. The expression of optimal income tax rate is educed. Finally, under the circumstance of government issuing bonds with uncertainty return and stochastic income taxation, the paper employs a stochastic growth model based on the second model. Stochastic real return rate of bond is determined endogenously. After deducing the equilibrium, the paper discusses the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and stochastic disturbance on economic growth and consumption prefer. This paper studies economic growth in an uncertain environment. The final conclusions are important for the government to make fiscal policies.更多还原