【作者】 王锋；

【导师】 吴贤国；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年以来,随着全球经济一体化和政治、经济、社会与科技的发展,工程建设业面临的竞争压力不断增加。由于建设周期长,参与单位众多,技术工艺复杂以及地理分布广等特点,在工程建设项目建设过程中普遍存在着风险因素多、管理效率低下的问题。虽然现在国内外建设工程风险管理的理论研究已经具备相当高的水平,工程风险分析和评价的方法也很多,但是由于对这些风险分析技术的实际应用情况没有系统的进行归纳整理,因此在面对具体的工程风险时,往往会选择不恰当的分析技术对风险实施分析和评价。最终的结果是对工程项目的风险的认识和分析不够,增加了风险管理的难度,直接影响了工程建设的质量、进度和成本目标,损害了项目的效益。本文就是基于以上的现状展开研究的。首先阐述了风险和风险管理的有关理论知识,在国内外学者对风险研究的基础上,给出了风险新的定义,指出风险管理的目的和意义,并构建了新风险管理的程序。然后详细的介绍了现在广泛使用的13 种风险分析技术,深入的分析并阐述了这些风险分析技术的优缺点以及适用条件,对这些技术进行了纵向的比较。以武汉长江江底盾构隧道施工工程为例,用事故树风险分析法对长江盾构隧道的渗漏水安全事故进行了分析,得出了长江盾构隧道渗漏水事故的基本事件的结构重要度大小排序,从而可以指导管理者注意结构重要度较大的基本事件的预防,并采取相应措施,提高工程施工的安全。用R=P×C 风险定级法对长江盾构隧道的施工风险进行了分析,确定了长江隧道工程的风险因素的等级,将对风险因素抽象的认识变成定量的具体的认识,让风险管理的目标明确化,从而实现了合理、经济的风险管理。在此基础上,详细的阐述了如何根据实际情况选择风险分析工具,实现有效的风险管理。最后将知识管理引入风险管理中,建立了建筑企业内和企业之间的风险管理体系,以期用一种全新的风险管理模式实现最优化的风险管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, along with the economy globalization and the emerging political, economic social and technological developments, the construction industry has encountered increasing competitive pressure. Due to the long construction period, numerous involved parties, complicated techniques and geographical disperse, construction projects are generally faced with the problems of too many risk factors and inefficient management, which not only affect the quality, schedule and cost of construction projects, but also decrease the projects, benefit. Though the theoretical research of risk management of the domestic and international construction project has already possessed quite high level now, and there are a lot of the methods of project risk analysis and appraise, the practical application of those methods are not induced systematically, so in the face of the concrete project risk, often choose the impertinence analytical technology. The final result is the understanding and analysis to the risk of the project is not enough, increases the degree of difficulty of risk management, influences the quality, progress and cost goal of the engineering construction directly, and damages benefit of the project. The paper`s research is based on the actuality of the actuality of the front. This text expatiate the relevant knowledge of the risk and risk management theories at first. On the base of the risk study of the home and overseas scholars, bring forward a new definition about risk, and point out the aim and meaning of risk management, and establish a new process of risk management. Then the text detailedly introduce 13 risk analysis technologies which are applied now, deeply analyses and explains the pluses and minuses of different and suitable condition of these risk analysis technologies, and compare with these technologies each other fore and aft. Construct with the Wuhan Changjiang River submarine shield tunnel construction project as example, using the Fault Tree Analysis method, analyze the safety accident of the leakage of the Wuhan Changjiang tunnel construction project, and obtain the compositor of the fabric significance of the basis affair. Accordingly instruct the handler specially guard against the basis affair which have the further fabric significance, adopt relevant measure, and advance the security of construction. Using the method of R=P×C, analyze the construction risk of the Wuhan Changjiang River submarine shield tunnel construction project, confirm the level of the risk factors, and the understanding to the risk factor become quantificational from nonfigurative cognition. Definitude the aim of risk management, accordingly realize the logical and economical risk management. On the base, detailedly expatiates how to choose the risk analysis tool according to the actual conditions, consequently realize effective risk management. Finally introduces knowledge management in risk management, sets up the risk management system in construction enterprise and between enterprises, expect to realize the risk management that is optimized most with a kind of brand-new risk mode.更多还原