【作者】 邵兵；

【导师】 肖卫国；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 金融学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代伴随着拉美国家的债务危机,发展中国家的资本外逃现象开始受到学术界的广泛关注,90年代的金融危机更是凸现资本外逃问题的严重性。同样在经历体制转轨的中国,资本外逃问题也不容忽视,它逐渐成为我国经济建设的一大隐患。要从根本上解决资本外逃,就必须对我国资本外逃的形成机制和控制方法有全面正确的认识,这样才能保证在金融一体化进程中有效地维护我国金融体系的稳定,促进我国国民经济的健康发展。 本文在认真总结国内外相关文献的基础上,充分借鉴国内外学者对发展中国家资本外逃问题研究的最新成果,重点对我国资本外逃的形成机制进行分析。 本文首先系统回顾资本外逃形成机制的理论基础,重点研究了几种有代表性的关于资本外逃动因的经济理论,总结了国内外学者对资本外逃动因的实证分析。 本文然后提出了影响中国资本外逃的可能性因素,依据现代动态计量经济学的理论方法,构建一个关于资本外逃与其决定因素的Johansen协整模型,得出资本外逃与其决定因素之间的长期均衡关系。实证结果表明,造成我国资本外逃的主要因素为国内外实际利率差异,外债增加,汇率高估,内外资差别待遇和金融压制等。 在此基础上,结合我国目前经济形势,本文提出了有效遏制我国资本外逃的相应对策。要保持宏观经济稳定,加强国有资产管理,完善公司治理机制,治理腐败及健全保障私人产权的法律制度,还应制定合理的外资政策和逐步取义消内外资不平等地位,以对我国资本外逃进行有效的控制和监督,消除资本外逃对我国经济的负面影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The academic have showed their concern over the issue of capital flight in developing countries since the countries in Latin America witnessed serious debt crisis occurred in 1980s. The financial crisis of 1990s has again revealed the severity of capital flight. As far as china is concerned, the problem of capital flight should not be ignores because of the developing and transitional economy of China. More and more capital flight had done harm to our economy potentially. In order to solve hidden trouble, we must study the reason and the countermeasure of the capital flight, and then we can keep the financial stability of our country and promote the health development of China economy.After reading the research works of developing countries and transitional countries as reference, the paper makes good use of the researching results of foreign scholars and pays much attention to the reasons and process of China capital flight specially.Firstly, the dissertation reviews systemically the theoretic model of capital flight and studies several representative theories specially. Then the article summarizes the previous empirical research of the reasons of capital flight.Secondly, this study presents the possible determinants of capital flight in China. We present a Johansen cointegration model based on the dynamic econometric theory. By the cointegration model, we get appropriale long run relationship between capital flight and its determinants. The empirical results imply that the difference between domestic and foreign rate, the foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, the overvaluation of the exchange rate, the discrimination between native and foreign capital, financial control are the main economic forcing factors of capital flight.Last, basing on empirical analysis and the situation of China’s economy, the article proposes that the comprehensive measures should be taken for effectively curbing capital flight in China. In order to control and prevent capital flight we should keep domestic economy stable, strengthen the management of state-owned assets, improve corporation government, protect private legal asset, make rational policy about making use of foreign assets and push financial deepening.更多还原