【作者】 柴晓玲；

【导师】 郭生练；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源危机已成为制约社会经济发展的重要影响因素,而水文资料的匮乏又对水资源的合理开发、利用造成了极大的障碍。无资料地区的水文问题已成为国际上水资源与水环境研究的热点。论文结合国际水文科学协会的PUB(Prediction in Ungauged Basins)计划开展研究,主要的内容和结论如下: (1)综述了无资料地区水文研究方法以及流域水文模型在无资料地区水文研究中的作用。对于无资料地区的水文研究,传统水文学多侧重采用水文观测、实验等手段;现代水文学则是采用包括遥感、地理信息系统、数字高程模型、人工神经网络、小波分析等新理论和新方法。 (2)结合具体实例分析探讨了IHACRES模型、新安江模型以及SCS模型的结构、原理及其在无资料地区径流模拟中的适用性。结论表明:无论是简单模型还是复杂模型,模拟效果并没有绝对的优劣之分,简单模型有可能比复杂模型获得更高的模拟精度;模型参数移置过程中,应当考虑流域的相似性。 (3)探讨了流域水文模型中存在的参数不确定性问题。模型参数优化中存在着强烈的异参同效现象,如果仅仅根据目标函数值R~2来确定模型最优参数,有可能导致很大的不确定性。 (4)区域回归分析一般以包括所研究的无资料流域在内的整个区域作为研究对象,建立径流量与其影响因子的相关关系,之后移用于该无资料流域。由于综合考虑了影响径流量的各种因素,因而模拟精度一般较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Across the globe, water resource and the water environment are under threat as never before, which restricts the development of economy, and the major difficulty we are facing is that the hydrologic data what we need is scarce or even inexistent. Research in un-gauged basins has become more and more popular all over the world. According to the IAHS PUB (Prediction in Un-gauged Basins) Programme, the main works and conclusions in this paper were summarized as follows:(1) The different research methods used in un-gauged basins were reviewed and discussed. For predicting runoff in un-gauged basins, observation and experiment are often used in traditional hydrology; while the new theories and methods, such as RS, GIS, DEM, artificial neural networks, wavelets analysis, are widely used in modern hydrology.(2) The IHACRES model, the Xinanjiang model and the SCS model were introduced. The applicabilities of those models for runoff simulation in un-gauged basins were compared and discussed. It is shown that the more complex models may not absolutely perform better than the simpler models. When the parameters were transplanted to simulate runoff in un-gauged basins, similarity factors between the reference basin and the target basin, such as basin area and the distance between basins, should be considered seriously.(3) The uncertainty of parameters in these hydrological models was discussed. Strong equifinality exists in model calibration period. If the objective function R2 is the only criterion used to optimize the model parametrs, it may face with the large uncertainty.(4) Regional regression analysis method was used to estimate annual runoff in un-gauged basins. Since it considered almost all the factors, which influenced the runoff synthetically, the accuracy of simulation was higher than the traditional method of isograph.更多还原