【作者】 孙永平；

【导师】 叶初升；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 西方经济学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 本文首先回顾了自20世纪70年代以来,经济学信任问题研究的历程和基本状况;包括微观层面上,信任的建立、维持和演化机制;宏观层面上,社会总体信任水平的决定因素,以及信任与经济增长之间的相互关系;也详细介绍了中国信任研究的最新进展。 其次,文章从信息角度分析了信任过程中由于事前的信息不对称造成的逆向选择,从博弈角度分析了信任建立的条件与过程,以及社会环境和个人素质对信任条件的影响,从声誉角度分析了声誉建立的可能性和条件,并对信任过程中的自我执行与正式控制之间的关系进行了探讨。文章还从制度和演化的角度分析了信任的产生演化过程,合作均衡的存在性和稳定演化策略的存在性,以及基于互惠基础之上的内生性的制度与组织——双边和多边信任机制的建立和条件。 文章在每一个部分的结尾部分都以处在社会经济转型时期的中国出现的信任危机为例,说明信任机制的作用及其在中国的表现。例如中国目前的低信任水平和信息获取的高成本造成了信任过程中较为严重的事前逆向选择。中国政策制度的多变性和行政执法当中人治因素的存在,使得人们很难形成一个稳定的政策制度预期,加之在社会经济转型时期人们的思想观点也变化较快,导致人们的偏好也在快速变化,因此重复交往(博弈)的可能性和倾向性较低,而更加关注于眼前的暂时利益。同时由于处在转型期的中国,正式控制的可获得性、公正性和有效性都相对较低,使得欺骗的成本较低,人们并没有很强的动机建立(投资)于长期的声誉。由于信任别人往往更加容易被欺骗,从而遭受经济损失,使得人们更加倾向于不信任别人,社会中大部分人都采取这样的策略的时候,这种策略就会演化成为一种稳定演化策略,在社会环境中稳定下来,并得以传承。 最后,文章概括了中国社会经济转型时期信任危机的表现,分析了信任危机的成因,并提出了相应的政策建议。并认为中国社会信任水平的重建是一个系统工程,需要在信息渠道建设、制度建设、政府公正性与廉洁性、道德体系建设等多个方面同时入手,因此也是一个漫长的过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Firstly, this article reviews the course of economic studies with respect to trust problem since the seventies of the 20th century including the basic state of economic studies of trust problem, the building, keeping and evolution of the trust mechanism. The decisive factors of social trust degree, the relationship between trust and economic growth and the trust problem in the transition countries and Chinese trust problem are also discussed in detail.Secondly, the article analyzes the aversion selection in trust progress caused by information asymmetry. According the view of game theory, article analyzes the condition and progress of trust building. How social environment and personal quality to affect the trust building is discussed, too. The possibility and terms that reputation would be set up are explained, as well. In this part article also analyzes the relationship between the self-enformation and formal control. At last article discusses the evolution of the trust strategy and the existence of the cooperative equilibrium and the mutually beneficial mechanism.In endings of every part, the article takes example for China’s trust crisis in the period of social economic transition to show the function of trust mechanism and behaviors in China. For example, at present, lower trust level and expensive cost to obtain information cause comparatively serious averse selection in the trust building process in advance. China’s changeable policy system and the existence of the "rule by officials" make people very difficult to form a steadily policy system expectancy. In addition, people’s view change very fast in social economic transition period, which causes people prefer present to future. Thus the repeated possibility and tendentiousness of intercourse are relatively low. Duo to China lying in transformation period, the accessibility, fairness and validity of formal control are relatively low, which make the cost cheated relatively low, so that people have no very strong motive to set up reputation in long term.Because it is often easier to be cheated to trust others, people incline to distrust others further. When most people in the society adopt such tactics, this tactics can become an evolutionary stable strategy.Finally, the article summarizes all sorts of representations of trust crisis in the Chinese social economic transition period. In the base of analyzing the causes of the trust crisis, article puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations. At last, article indicates that in China the reconstruction of social trust is a systemic engineering. These are many measures needed to take such as information channel construction, institutional improvement, government fairness, morals system construction, etc in order to rebuild trust mechanism. On all accounts, this system engineering will take a long time to finish.更多还原