【作者】 阮志敏；

【导师】 边馥苓；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 森林火灾是一个极其复杂的自然现象,受众多自然因素和社会因素的影响,包括可燃物类型、地形、天气等因素,而林火发生又具有突发性,要在很短的时间判断林火的发展趋势,并及时采取相应决策措施,同时还要随时掌握现场的状况,作为决策者要做到这一步就必须采用先进的科学技术来提高他的判断能力和现场指挥能力。随计算机技术的发展,对林火蔓延等的可视化研究逐渐受到人们的关注,它以形象、动态和直观的特性提供新的火灾蔓延模型研究方法。林火行为的定量模拟对于林业部门的防火、救火等决策具有重要意义。由于林火行为的时空特性,故对火场蔓延模拟必须建立在空间型背景数据库之上,即要在地理信息系统(GIS)等技术的支持下完成。对复杂的林火现象与林业管理工作,引入先进的GIS技术,能使林业工作更为快捷准确。 在制定森林决策方案方面,GIS借助其拥有的数据库和数据管理功能等,可以很方便地在空间、属性数据的基础上建立预测、决策模型。通过对各种过程进行模拟、比较和评价,选择出最优决策方案,并形成综合或专题报告输出供决策者参考。利用GIS这一工具就可以达到将所有的有关信息有机管理起来并将结果直观地表现出来,做到预防工作决策得力,扑救有效。 本论文旨在对林火发生和发展规律等研究的基础上,为防火和灭火的决策提供辅助的方法和技术。本论文选用了适合我国国情的林火蔓延模型,充分考虑了空间要素(如坡度、坡向等)的影响,通过将林火蔓延数学模型与GIS相给合,使理论成果在实践中得到应用,实现了地理信息系统支持下的火场蔓延动态模拟,并在对林火蔓延模型预测基础上,建立整个防火的辅助决策模型,为防火救火工作提供决策参考与支持。 本论文研究的主要内容有: <1>过火区模型预测 根据当时火灾现场的气温、风力、地形、植被类型等,应用科学的火灾蔓延模型预测未来时段火势蔓延情况,对火场发展趋势进行模拟。 <2>火场周围救火物资的调度 针对预测的火势蔓延情况,考虑救火物资与人员分布,对扑火队伍行进路线进行智能计算,提供物资与人员到达火场的最佳行进路线,以图文并茂形式提供最佳的扑救方案给决策者。更多还原

【Abstract】 Forest-fire is a kind of extremely complex natural phenomena, it is influenced by various natural and social factors such as combustibles, landform, climate and so on, moreover, the occurrence of the fire is paroxysmal, as a decision-maker, it is vital to judge the trend of the fire and to adopt corresponding actions, at the same time, to control the local situation. So, the decision-maker must master advanced technology to improve his ability of judgment and local superintendence. With the development of computer science, people put much more emphasis on the visual research of forest-fire spread which provides new investigation method in forest-fire, it has the characteristic of visualize, dynamic and intuitionistic. The quantitative simulation of forest-fire actions has very great meaning for forest department to make decisions in forest-fireproofing and fire-fighting. Due to the space-time characteristic of forest-fire actions, decision-maker should simulate the fire-spread based upon the spatial background database, namely, the work should be supported by GIS technology, etc. The complicated forest-fire phenomena and the administration of forest can be faster and much more exact by introducing advanced GIS technology.While establishing the forest decision-making plans, GIS can build forecasting and decision-making model expediently based on spatial and attribute datum, recurring to database and data administration capabilities of its own. GIS can choose best decision-making plan via simulation, comparison and evaluation of kinds of processes, and finally form compositive or theme report outputs for decision-maker to consult. By using the tool of GIS, the relative information can be handled and the results can be represented directly.This thesis aims to provide assistant methods and technologies for decision-making in forest-fireproofing and fire-fighting based upon the research of forest-fire occurrence and development rules. I chose the forest-spread model that fits the situation of our country, taking the influences of spatial factors such as grade and direction into account fully, to implement the simulation of fire-spread trends supported by GIS and build assistant fireproofing decision-making model based on the forest-fire spread forecasting model, in order to provide decision-making reference and support in fireproofing and fire-fighting.The followings are the main contents in this thesis:1. firedarea model forecastApplying the scientific forest-spread model to forecast the situation of fire spread in future and simulating the fire tends according to the temperature, wind power, landform,vegetation types, etc.2. attempering of fire-fighting material around the fire areaImplementing the intelligent computing for advanced rout of fire-fighting group and providing best rout for the materials and crews to get to the fire area, providing best fire fighting plans to decision-maker with both graphs and texts by contraposing the situation of the fire spread forecasted and considering the distribution of fire fighting materials and crews.3. fire area losses estimationCounting kinds of losses of forest promptly resources and providing data that will be likely to lose in future by spatial analysis function in GIS, based upon the situation of the fire spread forecasted or reported locally.The breakthrough in this thesis lies in the combination of special fire spread model and GIS technology to gain firedarea model in specific time or future time, which is the basis of the research and application in attempering of fire-fighting material and loss estimation around fire area, finally, to implement the design and application of the whole assistant decision-making model for forest-fire and computer simulation and forecast of fire spread in complex condition, and to provide spatial analysis around fire area circumstance, computing the best rational location for establishing fireproofing storehouse and scientific attempering of materials such as crews, water source, storehouse and so on for fire fighting needs, querying relative resource information in definite range, optimizing by GIS with the combination of landform and water system factors, providing best rout analysis, representing the results directly to users, prompting the scientific and application characteristic of fire-proofing superintend, providing reference plan and best decision-making for decision-maker.The thesis describes how to utilize Arcobjects during design and development, the assistant decision-making model which is based on forest-fire spread is implemented with COM mode and finally is applied in forest fireproofing information system. This article relying on the oriented object technology is based upon the development of COM that supports interface, the Arcobjects is the tool and its aim is to implement the assistant decision-making for forest fireproofing. This thesis has actual sense for the task of assistant decision-making of fire spread based upon GIS, the technology has been practiced in the province forest-fireproofing GIS, and proved to be reliable and sufficient.更多还原