【作者】 张波；

【导师】 周绍森；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以人力资本理论和新增长理论为理论依据,以新增长理论中的卢卡斯人力资本溢出模型(1988)为计量分析基础,实证分析了人力资本在江西经济增长中的表现。 在分析的过程中,我们改进了固定资本存量估算方法,填补了江西省1952～1977年资本形成额以及1952～2002年固定资本存量这两个统计指标序列值的空白。 随后,本文研究发现,人力资本对江西过去25年的经济增长的平均贡献率为32.1%;而且,人力资本水平的提高对产业结构升级具有“乘数性质”的加速效应——人力资本水平的增长率每提高1个百分点,未来第三年的产业结构升级的速度大概会提高1.5个百分点。另外,研究结果表明,中国人力资本外溢效应是世界平均水平的19%。 最后,根据计量分析模型预测,江西要实现未来的经济增长目标,人力资本水平的年均增长速度必须达到1.66%,也就是说,到了2020年,江西从业人员的平均受教育年限需达到10.92年。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theoretical bases of this dissertation are human capital theory and new growth theory and Lucas’s (1988) endogenous growth model of human capital spillover lays the foundation for our econometric analysis in the dissertation. Subsequently, the dissertation has demonstratedly analyzed the performance of human capital in the process of economic growth of Jiangxi Province since 1978.In our research, we improved the estimating of physical capital stocks and we supplied a gap by estimating the time series of physical capital formation from 1952 to 1977 and the capital stocks from 1952 to 2002.Subsequently, by research, we found that the average share of human capital’s contribution to economic growth of Jiangxi Province in the past 25 years is 32.1%. and the increase of human capital level has the acceleration effect on the upgrade of the industrial structure . In addition, the research shows that the spillover effect of human capital in China is lower than the average level in the world.At last, according to our econometric model’s forecast, a conclusion was drawn that if economic growth of Jiangxi Province can achieve the aims in the future, the growth speed of human capital level must arrive at 1.66%, that is to say, in 2020, the average education time of the labors in Jiangxi must achieve 10.92 years.更多还原