【作者】 于浩；

【导师】 马纯杰；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 建筑与土木工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国改革开放的不断深入和国民经济持续增长,房地产业获得了较大的发展。但是,阻碍和制约房地产业健康发展的因素也越来越多,最能引起人们注意的就是商品住宅空置问题。本文根据目前我国房地产市场飞速发展同时该领域关于房地产市场是否过热是否存在泡沫等争议不断的现状出发,从国外很好反映房地产行业状况的住宅空置率这一角度切入,试图对我国的房地产市场存在的相关问题和争论进行这一角度的分析。首先对房地产空置率的基本概念以及国内外在该指标上的不同计算原则进行基础性的比较研究,从而在借鉴国外指标的时候能够充分理解其中的含义和其本身的特殊性;然后本文针对目前房地产市场空置房不断上升的现状和原因进行了全方位的分析,并且特别针对空置率是否超过国际警戒线这一有争议问题根据国外指标体系进行了数据处理和转换得出相关结论,还为如何解决空置率过高问题提出了对策和建议;接着对我国空置率和我国国民经济之间的相关性进行了全面的分析,分别从住宅空置率和房地产周期,住宅空置率和房地产投资以及住宅空置率和我国国民经济增长三者之间的相关性进行了深入的计算和回归分析,为行业和国民经济发展提供有益的参考。最后对目前我国的空置率指标进行分析和评价,指出其存在的问题并且提出了更加符合我国国情的空置率指标,在此基础上初步确定相应的指标合理区间。更多还原

【Abstract】 With deepening reform of open-up policy and continuous growth of national economy, real estate has achieved great development. However, factors restricting the real estate from healthy growth have emerging, with the problem of massive amount of untitled houses as the most striking one. This article starts with the comprehensive understanding of the housing vacancy rate and in-depth comparison of domestic index system with foreign countries’. The article than moves on to the still yet rising housing vacancy situation and the so-caused reason .Then some useful ways to lower the housing vacancy rate were put forward. Through the date and index system transformation, we get the conclusion that our housing vacancy rate doesn’t exceed the internationally accepted alarm level .After that, the article moves deeper to analyze the correlation between the housing vacancy rate and real estate cycle, so does the real estate investment and GDP growth rate by qualitative and quantitive analysis. This article then discussed the defects of existing calculation methods of the vacancy rate of commercial housing. New approaches were put forward to calculate the vacancy rate of commercial housing in China. At last an acceptable vacancy rate interval were put forward.更多还原