长江沿线外贸集装箱生成量影响因素分析及生成量预测

【作者】 杜桂玲；

【导师】 徐大振；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 加快长江集装箱运输发展是贯彻落实中央提出的建设以上海国际航运中心为龙头,带动沿江经济发展战略部署的重要举措。长江沿线的广大地区是上海国际航运中心最主要的经济腹地,集装箱运输发展的空间非常大。要采取有效措施,加快长江集装箱运输发展,实现与上海国际航运中心良性互动。 从上海国际航运中心建设的需要出发,更好地发挥“黄金水道”作用,促进长江流域联动发展,研究洋山深水港服务长江流域江海联运模式。洋山开港后,迫切需要研究开发江海联运系统,创造一套全新的长江至洋山的集装箱江海联运模式,发挥洋山深水港为长江流域外贸进出口服务的功能,开发长江货源市场,从而集聚长江货源至洋山中转。 本文第一章主要分析长江流域集装箱市场的特点。从船型、航道以及航线等各个方面阐述了目前长江流域的集装箱运输现状,并进一步分析了长江集装箱运输发展的特点以及存在的一些问题。第二章研究的是集装箱生成机制,集装箱生产量预测方法,以及影响集装箱生成量的主要因素。从六个主要因素入手分析,他们对集装箱生成量带来的影响。第三章分别对长江“六省二市”集装箱生成量影响因素分析,主要从外贸额、GDP、固定资产投资、产业结构调整、基础设施建设这几个方面入手。在本章中,运用了成分数据预测方法对“六省二市”在未来几年内三次产业的比重运用成分数据预测方法进行预测,得到了各地区的产业结构发展趋势。第四章是对长江沿岸各省市外贸集装箱生成量进行预测。利用线性回归、二项式等预测方法首先对各地的GDP以及外贸进行预测,然后利用多因素动态模型分别预测各省市的集装箱生成量,最后得到整个长江流域集装箱货源。第五章分析和预测了长江沿岸各省市外贸集装箱出运路线。最后,本文对我国长江集装箱运输发展的步骤及对策提出了一点看法。更多还原

【Abstract】 To speed up the development of Yangtze River container transport is an important act, carrying out the strategic deployment put forward by the Central, which drive the economic development along Yangtze River, while concentrating on the construction of Shanghai International Shipping Center. The vast areas along the Yangtze River are the uppermost economic hinterland of Shanghai International Shipping Center, enjoying a large volume of space to develop container transport. Effective measures should be taken to expedite the development of the Yangtze River container transport and realize the benign interaction with Shanghai International Shipping Center. Proceeding from the construction of Shanghai International Shipping Center, it is necessary to make better use of Yangtze River which is hailed "Prime Channel", to promote the linkage development of the Yangtze valley, and to research the multimodal combined transport by river and sea model that Yangshan deepwater port serving the Yangtze valley. After being on stream, Yangshan port will cry for researching and developing the system of the multimodal combined transport by river and sea. Then, it is necessary to create a brand-new set of the multimodal combined transport by river and sea model from Yangtze River to Yangshan port, perform its function to serve foreign trade along the Yangtze River, exploit supply of commodities, consequently centralizing them to Yangshan port.The first chapter mainly analyzes characters of container transport market along the Yangtze valley. The second one mainly studies on the container generating mechanism, prediction method and the factors influencing container generating volume. The third chapter concretely analyzes factors to container generating volume of every province respectively. Especially, I exert composition-data prediction method to forecast industrial structure. The forth chapter forecasts the container generating volume of every province along the Yangtze River. The fifth chapter forecasts and analyzes the route of shipping out all the commodities along the Yangtze River. At last I put forward several opinions and countermeasures to the development of the Yangtze River container transport.更多还原