基于GIS的榆林地区景观变化及驱动力研究

【作者】 王永军；

【导师】 李团胜； 刘康；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 自然地理学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 景观空间格局分析是景观生态学研究的核心问题。景观变化不仅影响社会经济的持续发展,而且也是全球环境变化的重要组成部分和气候变化的主要原因,而其驱动力研究对于理解景观变化的实质进而预测景观变化的趋势非常重要。区域土地利用变化及其驱动力研究是全球LUCC研究的重要组成部分也是其基础。本文以榆林地区为例,榆林地区作为干旱半干旱区农牧交错带的典型代表,在自然地理上有独特的空间分布格局,在生态上有显著的脆弱性生境特征和演化规律,通过对该地区景观格局、动态变化过程与景观变化驱动力的研究,对于该区社会经济的持续发展和我国类似地区的相关研究乃至全国和全球的土地利用(景观)变化研究都有重要的意义。 本文采用陕西省1982年和1998年两期土地利用图(1:500,000)截取榆林地区的部分,同时借助相关地形图和野外实地调查资料,利用地理信息系统软件ArcView3.2和Arc/Info7.1,进行处理和分析,得到该区域1982年和1998年景观分类结果图。把景观分类结果输入FragStats软件,计算景观格局指数;应用ArcView3.2和Excel等软件,建立景观类型的初始转移概率矩阵,利用Visual Basic编程,预测不同步长的类型转移概率矩阵和稳定状态下的景观组成,以此来反映该区景观结构的动态变化。随后,利用该区近20年的社会经济统计资料,运用SPSS统计分析软件,用主成分分析法和多元回归法,定量分析了该区土地变化的驱动力,确立了人文因素特别是人口增加是其土地利用变化的主要驱动力。主要结论如下: 1、1982年～1998年间,景观格局变化特征:草地和林地的面积显著增加,面积减少最大的是沙地。破碎化程度仍然较为严重,景观形状趋于复杂,多样性和均匀度有所降低,但幅度不大。 1982年至1998年间,景观类型转化:灌溉水田、旱地、园地、林地、水体、盐碱地、沙地、裸土岩地主要向草地转变;水浇地、草地主要向旱地转变;居民地的增加主要来自旱地;工矿用地的主要增加来自盐碱地。 这些变化表明由于生态示范区以及山川秀美工程的实施,政府的强制实行的“退耕还林(草)”、“防治沙漠化”的政策已经发挥很大的作用,使得整个地区的更多还原

【Abstract】 The landscape change is an investigative core in landscape ecology . The landscape change has great influence on society and the sustainable development of economic . In addition , it is an important part of global environment change and a main reason for global climate change . The study on driving factor of the landscape change can greatly help us to understand the essential of the landscape change . Based on it, we can predict the developing trend of the landscape change . The landscape change in regional scale is the important part of global LUCC research as well as its base . The paper regard Yulin area as a typical model of agriculture-pasture interlacing zone in arid and semiarid area having special spatial pattern in physical geography and distinct fragile habitat characteristic and evolutive law in habitation The study on the landscape change ,dynamic transformation and human driving factors of the area will make greatly sense to this area’s sustainable development, the study on land use charge on whole nation and global scale .Based on the land-use map of Yulin in 1982 and 1998(scale 1 : 500, 000),using the geography information system program Arc ViewGIS3.2 ,ArcInfo7.1 and the landscape analysis program Fragstats, the spatial pattern was analyzed and the degree of fragmentation was evaluated primarily from the overall landscape properties, the area properties, the perimeter properties, the numbers of patches of landscape elements and so on. The dynamics variation of the landscape in the Yulin prefecture was get on the platform of Arc/Info 7.1 and Excel ; and the forecast on the dynamic variation of landscapes was executed on Visual Basic; and the analysis on the driving factors to the Landscape variation . Later on, making use of the 20 years’ social economic data in that area and using the SPSS 10 statistics software, humanities factor especially the population increment was established as the main driving factors. The results are as follows :1 , In Yulin prefecture , the grassland landscapes and the woodland landscape have increased greatly between 1982 and 1998 , while in that period , and Sandy desert decreased greatly. From 1982 to 1998 , the landscape pattern has an obvious fragmentation , the Shannon’s diversity index, landscape shape index and fractal dimension index become small.In Yulin prefecture 1982 to 1998, irrigating paddy field, dry land, garden area, woodland, of water, salt soil, sand landlord converted into grassland; The irrigable land and grassland converted into dry land. The increment of the resident ground comes from the dry land primarily.It is indicated that human activities has enhanced , the governmental compulsive execution policy of returning farmland to woodland (grass) and prevention of desertification have developed the very big function, landscape construction and ecosystem functions of whole region get the excellent turning with improvement.2 The Markov forecasting show that , under the condition of the same disturbs between 1982 and 1998 , Water, sand land and Gobi desert reduce, and other types all increase year by year. When the variety of the landscape attains the time of the opposite and stable appearance, garden area, woodland, resident land slightly contain increment. Therefore, the current policy in that area is more reasonable.3, The landscape changes of driving factors: pointing out the human activities, policy factor and economic lever’s function is the most driving factors of landscape variety. At the same time, using the main composition analysis and linear regression analysis ,it is established that human activities is the most driving factors.更多还原