基于价值链的技术创新项目的价值评估方法研究

【作者】 徐国军；

【导师】 方志军；

【作者基本信息】 南京师范大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 技术创新项目价值的评估是企业技术创新过程中的首要问题。目前,企业缺乏对技术创新的足够热情的一个重要原因就是技术创新项目缺乏合理有效的评估手段。 目前企业在进行技术创新项目的评估时,所采用的大都是贴现净现值法,即NPV法。这一方法往往容易导致对技术创新项目价值的低估,而在此基础之上引入的期权定价模型,部分地解决了这一问题,但并未从根本上解决这一问题。根据波特的价值链理论对技术创新活动进行分析会发现,不仅显性的经济价值很重要,隐性价值如技术创新过程中人力资本的增值、技术的增值及商誉的增值等也同样重要。净现值法低估技术创新项目价值的一个重要原因就是没有对技术创新项目中的隐性价值加以分析。因而有必要对原有的NPV法进行修正。在此基础之上,本文提出了用于技术创新项目分析的折现价值流模型。这一模型将技术创新活动中长期被忽视的隐性价值纳入了分析框架之内,为合理有效地评估技术创新项目的价值提供了一个新的分析框架,在一定程度上弥补了传统的NPV法的不足。更多还原

【Abstract】 The valuation of the technique innovation items is the initial problem in the technique innovation process of enterprises. Currently, an important reason that the enterprises lack enough enthusiasm to technique innovation is that there is no reasonable valid means to value the technique innovation items.Currently,when the enterprises value the technique innovation items,they like to use the Discounted-Cash-Flow method, namely NPV method. This method usually causes the under-estimation to the technique innovation items. The option method can partly resolve this problem, but can’t resolve this problem all. When we use the value chain theory of Michael E Porter to analyze the technique innovation, we find that not only the economic value is imporant,but the recessive values as the inrease of manpower capital, technique capital and business prestige are also important. An important reason that the NPV method causes the under-estimation to the technique innovation items is that it pays no attention to the recessive values of the technique innovation items. So it is necessary to modify the NPV method. The thesis puts forward the Discounted-Value-Flow method to value the technique innovation items. This model brings the recessive values into the analytical frame,which were neglected in the long term.And it provides a new analytical frame for the valuation of the technique innovation items.To some extent, this method makes up the shortage of the traditional NPV method.更多还原