【作者】 刘军；

【导师】 郑少智；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 统计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 诺贝尔经济学奖获得者是当代的经济学精英,他们的工作代表着当今经济学发展的主流。本文在对迄今为止36届55位诺贝尔经济学奖获得者进行简单介绍的基础上,对获奖者情况进行了统计分析,并应用文献计量学的方法,对获奖者被EconLit收录的所有论文进行计量分析,找出获奖者群体规律性问题。最后应用以上结果,对我国的科学评价体制、科学发展的社会坏境等问题进行了讨论。 一、通过对55位获奖者基本情况进行统计分析发现: 1.获奖者的获奖成就主要集中在宏观经济理论和宏观经济计量两个方面,这两个学科代表着20世纪经济学发展的主流; 2.获奖者主要集中在美、英两个经济发达、社会稳定、对科技教育投资大,并有较为完善的科技奖励体制的国家; 3.获奖者获奖时所提及的最早成就时年龄为20～40岁(平均年龄为34岁),而获奖年龄在60～80岁(平均年龄66岁)。 二、通过对1969～2005年55位获奖者被EconLit收录的所有论文计量分析发现: 1.随着年代的变化,获奖者以非第一作者发表论文占论文总数的比率有增加的趋势,但大多数获奖者以第一作者发表的论文占绝大多数; 2.在发表文章的所有时间内,论文年产量主要集中在0～2篇/年的范围内; 3.获奖后比获奖前短期内生产力平均增幅38.3%; 4.随着时间的变化,微观经济学、宏观经济计量学科的论文人均年产量有增加的趋势,宏观经济理论学科有减少的趋势。 三、应用以上结论,对我国科学发展的社会环境进行讨论: 1.应该改变过分强调论文数量和SCI的基础研究评价体制,鼓励年轻人思考“一流问题”; 2.针对科学精英取得研究成就的时间特点,建立完备的青年科技奖励制度; 3.加强国际科技交流,增加青年人向科学大师学习的机会; 4.改革教育体制,建立有利于科学发展的自由、开放、宽松的学术环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 Winners of the Nobel economics Prize are elites in contemporary economics field, their work represents the mainstrem in the economic development nowadays. On the basis of a brief research on the 55 medal winners , a statistical analysis has been made on the overall winners.Methods in Bibliometrics is applied to analyze all the thesis embodied by E so as to find out certain formulas in the work of all the winners.In the end, based on the above outcome, a discussion is made on issues such as the evaluation system in science, the social circumstance for the science development.First, Through the statistical analysis of all the 55 winners, discoveries have been made that:1. Achievements of the medal winners centralize in the two aspects in the macroeconomic theories and macroeconometrics, which represent the mainstrem of the economics development in the 20 century;2. The majority of the medal winners are from antions like the United States American and England, which countries all possess advanced economy, stable social envionment, large amount of invesment in science, and well-equipped science award system;3. The age by which the earliest achievement of winners are mentioned in economical study is from 20 years old to 40 years old(averaging 34), the age by which thy win the medal range from 60 to 80 years old(averaging 66).Second, Through the use of methods in bibliometrics,a study of all the treatises by the 55 medal winners is made . these treatises are published in EconLit from 1969 to 2005.It is found:1. Along with the variety of the age, there is an increase in the ratio of the thesis published as the non-first author to the total amount of thesis for winners, but the thesis published as the first author share the great majority for most of winners;2. Considering the time period during which treatises are published ,theamount of yearly production of treatises ranges from 0 to 2 every year;3. The short time production after their winning the medal increases on average 38.3% compared with beforehand;4. With the passage of time, in disciplines such as microeconomics and macroeconometrics, the yearly production of treatises per person increases, macroeconomic theories confront a production decline.Third, On the basis of the above conclusion, a discussion is made on the social environment for science development:LA change should be made on the originally excessive emphasis on the number of treatise as well as on the evaluation system of the foundation research of SCI, young people should be encouraged to study the most advanced issues;2. Well-equipped young people’s science award system should be established to arouse their enthusiasm;3.Promote international science communication, which enables young to learn from great masters of Science in the world;4.Creat a favorable social environment for science development.更多还原