价值投资理论研究

【作者】 徐成刚；

【导师】 张恩众；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 股市依据本身的规律运行。假如没有规律,股市便会无所适从。人们没有掌握股市运行规律,并不等于股市的运行规律不存在。自有股票市场以来,人们一直在孜孜探求股票市场的运行规律,并为此提出了各种各样的股票投资理论。价值投资理论就是其中一个具有较大影响的投资分析流派。 该流派认为,股票一定程度上反映其发行主体经营业绩的内在价值,价格和价值之间的差异经常出现,但价格是不能长期背离价值的。投资者的任务就是仔细研究有关发行主体的财务数据及其相关资料,努力去发现股票的价值。通过对价值的计量和价格所处的位置,来判断投资的时机。 价值投资理论在美国股市中被广泛应用,并取得了巨大成功。中国A股市场虽然存在着诸多阻碍价值投资理论推广的因素,但这不应该成为我们排斥甚至拒绝价值投资理论的借口,因为这些影响因素是可以逐步消除的。在我国股市,倡导价值投资理论,有着诸多积极意义。通过“倒逼机制”,可以促使上市公司努力改善公司经营状况,切实为中小投资者的利益着想;倡导价值投资理论,还可以使中小投资者改变目前的投机模式和投机理念,减少市场的过度投机;倡导价值投资理论能够加强整个市场的投资气氛,有利于股市发挥其应有的资源配置功能。 价值投资理论的关键,是如何估算股票的价值,这也成为价值投资理论各派观点争论的核心。贴现模型和EVA模型,由于其自身的局限,不能直接应用到我国股市。对中小投资者来说,让他们去掌握这两种模型也是不现实的。考虑到我国股市的特殊性,将资产模型与贴现模型融合,并结合成长型投资理论模型,创造出修正的综合模型,可能会更符合中国的具体实际,也有助于中小投资者迅速领会价值投资理论的精髓,分享价值投资理论的成果。 通过选取上海证券市场两家上市公司(福田汽车、贵州茅台)的相关资料,结合价值投资的基本思想进行案例分析,便于中小投资者模仿、借鉴。从价值投资理论出发,对正、反两个案例进行研究,将股票价值的计算没有限制在一个具体的数值,而是求价值区间,以此判断股票的投资价值。这样一方面融合了成长型投资理论,延伸了投资获利的空间;另一方面便于中小投资者根据自身实力,自由选择购买时机。更多还原

【Abstract】 The stock market circles with its own rule. If there is not a rule, the stock market will go at loose ends and disappear. It is unequal to no rule even if people don’t master the stock market rule. Since the stock market came into being, people have been hardworking at searching for the rule. People brought forward all kinds of stock investment theories. The value investment theory is a more important and influencing one among the stock investment theories.The value investment theory considers that stock can reflect the inherent value of the listed companies. This theory points that price and value often differ, but price can not deviate from value in a long time. The investors’ role is to discover the stock’s value form investigating the companies’ finance and other data carefully. The investors can estimate the investing opportunity through contrasting price to value.The individuals and institutions in America have applied the value investment theory broadly .The value investment theory can be introduced to the Chinese market, although it is contorted. There are countermeasures to settle the obstacles. The application of the value investment theory can bring good effect. In China, sparking the value investment theory can make the listed companies improve their operation and consider the weak investors’ behalf. The value investment theory can amend the gamble atmosphere of the stock market, and make the resource-allocating function play well.The key of many value-investing scholars is the calculation of the stock value. Because of the discount model and the EVA model’s limit, we can not apply them directly. Standing with the weak investors, it is not practical for them to master these models. With a view to the Chinese stock market particularity, we should create a new model by uniting the discount model and the assets model with the growth theory. That is compatible for our market practice and that will allow the weak investors to share the value investment theory’s fruit.This paper uses two listed companies of Shang-hai stock market as cases. The weak investors can hold the essence of the value investment theory rapidly by the cases. Standing at the weak investors’ behalf, this paper does not restrict the calculation at certain numerical value, but calculate the value room. This room will allow the weak investors to select freely at the base of their strength.更多还原