【作者】 杨秀杰；

【导师】 罗文锋；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 环境科学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,人类对生态的破坏越来越严重,已直接威胁到人类的生存和国家发展,生态问题演化为生态安全问题,生态安全也成为国际学术界和各国政府关注的焦点。 生态安全承载力是我国学者杨京平提出的评价生态安全的一种新方法。本文结合承载力概念在环境科学方面应用的成果,对生态安全承载力概念的进行了重新界定,并利用系统动力学方法,以云阳县为实证研究对象,对区域生态安全承载力进行了尝试性研究。 本文共分十章,主要内容如下: 第一章简要介绍了生态安全承载力研究选题的背景和研究的意义,以及本文做的主要工作。 第二章主要阐述了生态安全承载力理论,分为生态安全和生态安全承载力两部分,而且分别介绍了它们的由来、概念、特点、内涵、研究现状及其相互关系。 第三章介绍了系统动力学方法的概念、特点、研究步骤以及建立系统动力学模型的原理和原则。系统动力学方法解决问题分为系统辩识、结构分析、模型建立、模型分析和模型评估五个步骤。 第四章对实证研究区域云阳县的生态安全承载力系统进行了辩识。本章从云阳县的自然地理、自然资源、自然环境和生态条件三个方面对其自然子系统进行了辩识;从人口状况和科学技术方面对云阳县的社会子系统进行了辩识;从三大产业和国民经济四个方面对经济子系统进行了辩识。 第五章在对云阳县的人口、资源、环境和社会经济状况进行辩识的基础上,确立了云阳县生态安全承载力系统的子系统,并对各个子系统及其内部之间的更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the ecological problems are becoming more and more serious due to people’s destroy, which have given directly threat on the existence of human being and the national development. So the ecological problems are evolving eco-security one, which also become the focus between global academy and government of all the countries.Eco-security Carrying Capacity (ECC) is a kind of new method that evaluates eco- security, which had been put forward by a Chinese Scholar, Jingping Yang. Based on the applied production of Carrying Capacity in environmental science, this paper redefines Eco-security Carrying Capacity. At the same time, using the method of System Dynamics (SD) and taking Yunyang County as an example, the paper makes a trial of research on Eco-security Carrying Capacity of district.The article is divided into ten chapters. The whole structure as follows:The background, significance of Eco-security Carrying Capacity study and the work of this article are introduced in chapter 1.The theory of Eco-security Carrying Capacity is discussed in chapter 2. It consisted of two parts that are Eco-security and Eco-security Carrying Capacity. The origin, con- ception, characteristics, connotation, current situation and relations between two parts are separately introduced.It is introduced the method of System Dynamics in chapter 3. An approach to the problems of System Dynamics is divided into five steps include identifying system, analysis configuration, establishing model, analysis model and evaluation model.In chapter 4, the system of Eco-security Carrying Capacity in Yunyang Countyis identified, which consisted of the physical subsystem that is composed of natural geography, natural resources, ecological environment, the social subsystem that includes the population conditions , science and technology, the economic subsystem which comprises national economy and agriculture, industry, business, etc.On the basis of analyzing the population, resources, environment and social economic conditions of Yunyang County, the construction of Eco-security Carrying Capacity System in Yunyang County is established, the System Dynamics Model and feedback loops are built in chapter 5.Based on the feedback mechanism of subsystem and the principle of catching the main problems, the flow chart of Eco-security Carrying Capacity System and the equations of System Dynamics for subsystem are set up in chapter 6.In chapter 7, using Vensim Software the system dynamics model will be circulated after the parameters of model is set up. Through verifying the construction, historical behaviors that if or not fit historical data and the analysis of sensitivity, the validity and practicability of model is estimated. Following, Eco-security Carrying Capacity in Yunyang is predicted by the model.The policy experiments of Eco-security Carrying Capacity Model are discussed by the policy synthesis indexes of four aspects in chapter 8.According to the policy experiments, in chapter 9, after adjusting the policy parameters, at the same time, taking purchase grain into account at suitable time, Eco-security Carrying Capacity Model in Yunyang is optimized.Finally, this article gives out the conclusions. It clearly indicates that this model can explain the interrelations of each factor of Eco-security Carrying Capacity System about Yunyang, so it can predict Eco-security Carrying Capacity, and the results can be applied as a scientific foundation and reference for governmental development and plan.更多还原