【作者】 蒲春燕；

【导师】 孙璐；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 会计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国加入WTO,我国企业所面临的外部竞争环境越来越激烈,企业陷入财务困境和导致企业破产的数量急剧上升,企业普遍对抗风险的能力较弱。为了能够增强企业的抗风险能力,使企业经营者能尽早得知企业潜在的危险而采取相应的应对措施就显得十分必要。所以对企业财务预警研究成了理论界和实务界的研究热点。 关于上市公司财务预警的研究,国内外学者曾建立了多个预警模型,但这些模型的建立都是以公司财务数据的真实性为假设前提。然而,由于我国《公司法》中规定的ST、PT制度,将会对一些上市公司本身及其它利益相关者产生显而易见的影响。可以推测在这种情况下,他们为了实现自身效用最大化,会竭尽全力采取种种利润操纵手段,以避免出现亏损或连续亏损的情况。另外,非财务困境公司也可能由于配股、增发新股等目的而采取种种盈余管理的手段。所以,在建立财务预警模型时,我们考虑了盈余管理和利润操纵对上市公司财务数据的影响,从实证的角度建立了通过考虑非财务困境公司的盈余管理和财务困境公司的利润操纵后建立的财务预警模型。财务预警的实证研究的主要内容包括:研究对象的界定、财务预警样本的设计、预测变量的设计、预警方法的确定、对亏损公司八个财务指标的调整、以及对指标的显著性检验和多重共线性的检验、利用调整前和调整后的财务指标所建立的A、B两个多元罗辑回归模型,这些实证研究均更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with our country Joining the WTO, our country businesses face the exterior environment of competition is more and more vigorous, the quantity of the businesses sink into the financial distress and cause bankruptcy hoicked, the wide- spread ability of resisting the risk is weaker. It is important for businesses to raise their anti- risk ability and can make business executive known the latent danger in business as early as possible and adopt to reply the measure. So the research of the financial affairs early warning becomes the focus of the theoretical research and practical research.As for financial affairs early-warning research of the listed company, the domestic and international scholar onces established many financial affairs early warning model, but these established modelses is all the premise that finance data is true. However, our country’ s system of ST, PT ruled in the {( company law ? , will to lead to the obvious influence for listed company itself and the other benefits related. In this case, they will try their best to adopt all kinds of means of profit manipulation for realizing theirselves maximal effects, in order to avoid to appear loss or continuous loss. Moreover, non-loss companies is also possibble becauseof all kinds of the purpose to adopt all kinds means of earnings management. So, while establishing financial affairs early- warning model, we consider the influence of earnings management and profit manipulati on the listed company finance data, from the angle of empirical study, we establish financial affairs Early- warning model on the consideration non- loss companies’ earnings management and loss companies ’ profit manipulation at last. The main contents of the empirical study on the financial affairs in early warning includes: the define of the study object -> the design of the sample of financial affairs early-warnings the design of the estimate changesN the define of the early -warning method> to the adjustment of loss company of eight financial index signs -. the outstanding examination of index signs and the multi-collinearity examination n making use of the financial index signs which is after or before adjusting to establish A or B model. The paper uses a lot of knowledge of statistics and also complies with the rules of the empirical study form the contents above-mentioned. We verify that earnings management and profit manipulation have the important influence on establishing financial affairs early warning model through established model ; Through established model, we discovery that the native listed companies’s financial distess is not the abilitis of having no paying , but the decrease of the abilities of the earnings between 2000year and 2001year. In the process of the adjustment of eight financial index signs, we courageously apply the theory of eanings management and profit manipulation to adjust the eight financial index signs, and The result discovers the adjustment is beneficial. At the same time, we not only make use of the outstanding examination, but also of the multi-collinearity in the sieving of the finance index sign, in order to make our established model cannot influence the estimate accuracy as more or less financial index signs , and Guarantee Nonexistent the multi-collinearity amony the financialindex signs.With the development of corpate governance and the capital market, the research of the financial affairs early warning for the listed Companies of China becomes more and more important because the research is useful to realize the aim of the value maximum of the companies.The theory is based on the practice and ,on the contrary, the theory can lead practice.With the perfection of corpate governance and the capital market, the accouting information of the listed company will become more and more perfect.So the research of the financial affair in early warning of the listed company should incessantly develop.So the paper only gets some conclusions according to the current conditions.We should still try our best to study the financial affairs in early warning .Just as the ancient poetry said : "study is endless, wu can arrive at the destination of our life only to study hard. " The author will study this financial affairs in early warning of the listed company in our country with the development of the means of profit manipulation in the future. The paper is the outcome of the three years’ study of studing for the Master degree.更多还原