【作者】 韩茜；

【导师】 熊黑钢；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 人文地理学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 脆弱生态区是指对外界干扰反应敏感、生态稳定性较差、生态环境易于向不利于人类利用的方向发展,并且在现有的经济水平和技术条件下,这种负向发展的趋势不能得到有效遏制的连续区域,内部的不稳定性和对外界干扰的敏感性是它的两个最基本的特征。 本文在对脆弱生态区内涵理解的基础上建立了脆弱生态区评价指标体系,包括资源环境因子、经济发展水平因子、经济替代能力因子、与其它区域的联系因子和社会发展水平因子五个子系统。应用聚类分析方法,分别以五个子系统和总指标体系作为聚类变量,对新疆15个地州进行脆弱生态区聚类分析。然后,对新疆15个地州进行脆弱性评价,应用模糊数学思想,以国家标准作为参照体系,计算15个地州对各级稳定性的隶属度。最后,以和田地区作为典型区,以脆弱性分类和脆弱性评价结果为基础,探讨其脆弱性,将分形理论应用到生态承载力的计算中,计算和田地区1993至2002年10年的生态承载力和生态弹性力。 本文主要结论如下: (1)对新疆脆弱生态区的聚类分析,无论是以各子系统为聚类变量,还是以总指标体系为聚类变量,普遍规律是北疆优于南疆,大城市优于小城市。北疆地区具有地缘优势,而且自然资源组合条件佳,社会经济发展水平高,与其它区域的联系较紧密。南疆地区不但自然条件差,而且区位不具优势。东疆地区自然环境恶劣,但具有区位和资源优势,社会经济发展水平较高。 (2)根据新疆15个地州的脆弱性评价结果,将15个地州分为五种类型。 稳定型,包括石河子市、乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市。对很稳定的隶属度大于其他四种状态(很脆弱、脆弱、临界值、稳定)。 轻度脆弱型,包括伊犁州直属县市。对很脆弱的隶属度为0.373。 中度脆弱型,包括昌吉州、巴州、塔城地区、哈密地区、博州、阿勒泰地区、吐鲁番地区。对很脆弱的隶属度大于0.4,小于0.5。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fragile environment is a kind of ecology region, which is sensitive to outside disturbance. Its ecological stability is relatively worse and its ecological environment is apt to develop to the direction that is not good to use for mankind, and under existing economy and technology, the negative development trend can not be controlled. The inside instability and the sensitivity to the outside disturbance are the two main characters.Based on the comprehension of connotation of fragile environment, the thesis establishes the fragile environment evaluation index system, including five subsystem: resource and environment factors, economic development factors, economic substitute ability factors, factors of contact with other regions, social development factors. Using clustering analysis, making five subsystems and total index system as clustering variable, classifies the fragile environment of fifteen states in Xinjiang. Secondly, using fuzzy math idea, making nation criterion as reference, calculates subordinative degree to different stability of fifteen states. Finally, taking Hetian area as typical region, based on the frangibility classification and evaluation consequence, discusses its frangibility. Using fractal theory, calculates the ecological carrying capability and ecological resilience of ten years from 1993 to 2002.Here are the main conclusions of this thesis:(1) From the clustering analysis, whether make five subsystems or total index system as clustering variable, the general rules are northern Xinjiang is superior to southern Xinjiang, large cities are superior to small cities. Northern Xinjiang has position superiority, and better combination of nature environment and resource, so, ithas high level of social and economy development. Southern Xinjiang is not only inferior in nature condition, but also in position. Eastern Xinjiang is inferior in nature environment, but has advantages in position and resources, the development of social and economy is higher.(2) According to the frangibility evaluation of fifteen states in Xinjiang, the fifteen states of Xinjiang are classified as five categories: stability, including Urumqi, Shihezi, and Karamay city, there subordinative degree to quite stabilization is higher than other four conditions, gentle fragility, including (?)i area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility is 0.373; middle fragility, including Changji, Bazhou, Tacheng, Hami, Bortala state, Altay, Turpan area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility are between 0.4 and 0.5; serious fragility, including Aksu area, kezhou, kashi area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility are between 0.6and 0.8; extreme fragility, including Hetian area, the subordinative degree to quite frangibility is 0.889.(3) The change of ecological carrying capability from 1993 to 2002 in Hetian area is divided into three phases: from 1993 to 1999 is decreasing, from 1999 to 2002 is increasing slowly. There is a wave crest in 1994. The total trend is decreasing.(4) The change of ecological resilience from 1993 to 2002 in Hetian area is divided into two phases: from 1993 to 1995 is declining, from 1995 to 1999 is increasing slowly, from 1999 to 2002 is decreasing rapidly. There is a wave crest in 1999. The total trend is decreasing.(5) As for stability regions, they must control population, basing on using nature resource reasonably and protecting nature environment, expedite economy development. And expiate environment by economy, invest much more in environment protection.(6) As for gentle fragility regions, improve agriculture technology, save irrigating water, improve the utilization of farmland. Making use of advantages of nature sight, strengthen the intensity of tour industry development, reduce thedependence of GDP to the first industry, enthence economic subtitute ability.(7) As for middle frangibility regions, economic development and environment protection must be together. For the regions which are mainly in resource exploitation, carry on resource sustainable development. For the regions of making first industry as the chief, develop eco-agriculture, adjust industry structure properly, enlarge the proportion of the third industry which consume resources less.(8) As for serious frangibility regions, expedite the development of economy in the range of ecological carrying capability, improve the utilization of water resource and land resource, plant trees and turn farmland into forest and grassland, hold water, conserve soil, improve fragile environment.(9) As for extreme fragile regions, the first is to develop economy energetically, invest much more in basic establishment, strengthen economic corporation with northern Xinjiang. Through advanced science and technology, change extensive resource use, and protect environment.更多还原