【作者】 刘晶；

【导师】 王德春；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 会计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 会计盈余与现金流量信息含量的研究,具有非常重要的意义。首先,从会计理论的发展来看,会计盈余与现金流量是会计体系中最重要的概念和指标,是投资者进行投资决策的基础。但是传统的财务理论认为,股票价格等于未来股利的折现而不是未来会计盈余的折现,更不是用历史成本和权责发生制原则计算出来的报告会计盈余的折现。这就会使人们产生对会计盈余决策有用性的质疑,为了证明会计盈余具有决策有用性,会计界一直在进行这方面的研究。其次,从我国的国情看,建国后我国会计理论、实务经历了一个从计划经济向市场经济过渡转轨的过程,中国会计市场化取向改革的实际效果如何,一个重要的检验标志是会计信息是否开始具有决策有用性,而通过证明会计盈余具有信息含量能很好的证明会计信息的决策有用性。但在我国,会计盈余信息是否具有决策有用性还是一个存在争议的问题,一方面,会计盈余受到上级部门重视、会计信息统一性得到增强、会计事务所独立性增强等因素可能使会计盈余具有了信息含量;另一方面,我国的会计改革是一个渐进的过程,会计改革目标的多元性和矛盾性、盈余操纵和会计信息失真等因素又可能使会计盈余不具有信息含量。 本文的研究主题正是通过对1999年—2003年深市上市公司会计盈余、现金流量的实证研究,回答会计盈余信息在我国证券市场是否具有信息含量这一基本问题。全文共分为四章: 第一章是绪论,共分为三部分,第一部分主要是说明本文研究的目的和意义,本文研究的目的主要是通过对深市上市公司会计盈余、现金流量的实证研究,解决会计盈余信息在我国证券市场上是否具有信息含量这一基本问题。第二部分对该问题国内外研究现状做一个概括性的描述。第三部分说明本文的研究内容及框架结构。 第二章是理论基础,共分为二部分,第一部分主要介绍三大会计思维范式即信息观、计量观和契约观。第二部分是股票计价模型,对国内外文献中主要的股票计价模型(包括现金股利折现模型、资本资产定价模型、盈余资本化模型、资产负债表模型、会计基础计价模型等)做了一个归纳总结并介绍了有效市场假说与功能锁定假说,并提示它们对会计盈余信息更多还原

【Abstract】 The research on the information content of accounting earnings and cash flows is very important. First, from the history of the accounting theory, accounting earnings and cash flows are the most important concept in accounting systems, it is the foundation that investors carry on the investment decision. But the traditional financial theory believe that stock price equal to the discount of future dividend instead of future accounting earnings and future accounting earnings based on historical cost and principle of accrual-basis. This will make people doubt about the decision usefulness of accounting earnings, in order to prove it is useful in decision making, researches were being carried on in accounting fields. Secondly, from the view of the condition of our country, after the establish of new China, the accounting theory and practice experience a transition course that go through transition from planned economy to market economy. One important symbol of our market oriented accounting reform is whether accounting earnings have decision usefulness or not, and by examining the value relevance of accounting earnings, we can easily prove that. But in our country, the question of decision usefulness is still in dispute. On one hand, some factors might make the accounting earnings provided with the value relevance, such as: the accounting earnings is paid attention to by the department of higher level, the unity of accounting information and the independence of accounting firms are strengthened. On the other hand, the accounting reform of our country is a progressive course, some factors might make the accounting earnings provided with no value relevance, such as the pluralism and contradiction of the goal of accounting reform, the control of earnings and the distortion of accounting information.The theme of this dissertation is answer the question that whether account ing earning is decision useful in China’s security market by the positive research of accounting earnings and cash flows of listed company of ShenZhen stock market in the period of 1999 to 2003. The dissertation is divided into four chapters altogether:Chapter one the introduction, divided into three parts altogether, the first part is to show the purpose and purport of this dissertation. The purpose of this dissertation isanswer the question that whether accounting earning is decision useful in Chin a’s security market by the positive research of accounting earnings and cash flows. Second part is to do a descriptive describe of current research situation both at home and abroad. The third part is to state the research contents and frame structure of this dissertation.Chapter two a theoretical foundation, divided into two parts altogether: the first part is to introduce the three accountingParadigms of information perspective, valuation perspective and contract perspective. The second part is to introduce various valuation models and Efficient Market Hypothesis and Functional Fixation Hypothesis, The Models Including dividend discount model,capital assets pricing model, earnings capitalization model, balance sheet mod el and accounting-based valuation model.Chapter three the positive research, divided into two parts altogether. The first part is the research on value relevance of accounting earnings, the purpose of this part is to prove the value relevance of accounting earnings by the analysis of exchange sum and regression analysis of abnormal returns and unexpected earnings. The second part is the comparative analysis of accounting earnings(earnings per stock and returns on assets) and operating cash flow and free cash flow. The content of this part is do correlation analysis and regression analysis through O-F model on accounting earnings, operating cash flow and free cash flow.Chapter four the conclusion and policy suggestions, make a simple summary and put forward relevant policy suggestions on the research results of this dissertation.更多还原