【作者】 章欣；

【导师】 张宗益；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 产业经济学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 中小企业是国家和地区经济增长的重要力量,它在提供就业和促进创新等方面发挥着重要的作用。但目前绝大多数的中小企业都处于融资困境中,自有资金不足、银行信贷不畅、社会融资不够格等因素成为我国中小企业持续、迅速发展的主要资金瓶颈。解决这个难题,需要政府、社会和企业多方面的努力,但最根本的还是在于中小企业自身信用水平和金融机构信用风险管理水平的提高。在总结前人研究的基础上,作者利用组织发展理论和行为决策理论的研究框架分析了中小企业信用风险的组织特点和行为特征。结果发现在中小企业的成长过程中,企业所有者对企业的发展起着关键的主导作用,中小企业的信用风险受到所有者个人主观意愿和企业经营状况两方面的影响。从信息分析的角度,作者还提出了以所有者个人信用信息为首要因素的银行进行中小企业信贷决策的信息需求结构。在理论分析的基础上,作者提出了所有者个人信用水平、企业经营状况和企业还款履约情况之间影响关系的假设,并构建了在此假设成立下的中小企业信用风险评估两阶段模型。模型从所有者的个人信用分析入手,将中小企业信用信息的可靠性检验作为信用风险评估的首要步骤。接着,通过对问卷收集数据的统计分析,作者确定了所有者个人信用和企业经营状况的多维指标结构及相关权重,并在样本数据信度检验通过的情况下对模型假设进行了验证和路径系数的确定。实证结果表明:企业经营状况对企业还款履约能力有着显著的正向影响,所有者个人信用对企业经营状况有着显著的正向影响,企业所有者个人信用则通过对企业经营状况的影响而对企业还款履约能力产生正向影响。最后,作者运用样本数据对模型的预测效果进行了试探性检验。对模型的结构验证说明,从中小企业所有者个人信用分析入手构建的两阶段模型是符合实际情况的,具有一定的理论意义。对预测效果的小样本试探性检验则说明,该模型具有一定的预测价值,但模型的预测精度还可以通过变量系数的精确得到进一步提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Small-and medium-side enterprises (SMEs) are important powers in national and regional economic developing, which provide a great deal employments, various services and goods. However, most of those are in financing binding. It is difficult for SMEs to expand only by retained earning, or financing from bank and market. Government and societies endeavor to improve this situation, but the key factor is till SMEs itself, such as advance of credit level, improve of performance and more unabridged financial data. We discussed the characters of organization development and credit risk of SMEs. Our study based on Organization Development Theory and Behavioral Decision Making shows that owner is the principle factor in SMEs developing, and the credit risk of SMEs are affected by owner’s subjective will and enterprise’s performance. On the point of information analyzing, we presented an information requiring construction in loan decision of SMEs for bank, whose primary component is owner’s personal credit information. Furthermore, we surveied the relationship between level of owner credit, enterprise performance and level of enterprise credit. Then we constructed a credit risk 2-phase-evaluation model of SMEs, based on information reliability validating through evaluating of owner’s personal credit information. By statistical analyzing on sample data, we screened out indexes of personal credit and enterprise performance, obtained makeup of chose indexes, and calculated weight of every index. We also tested the model construction by structural equation modeling, after testing the reliability and the variables of data in samples. We concluded that enterprise’s performance has positive impacts on level of enterprise credit; level of owner credit has positive impacts on enterprise performance; and level of owner credit has positive impacts on level of enterprise credit through impacts on enterprise performance. In the end, we trial tested the forecast validity of the model with sample data. Those results of structural equation modeling testings show that the construction of our model is practical. And the results of trial validity test show that our model is effectually in some ways, but there still is much work can be done to perfect it.更多还原