【作者】 孙国文；

【导师】 尹光志；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 矿业工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 矿产资源是国民经济与社会发展的重要物质基础。自然资源的赋存及可供性是影响和制约一个国家或地区经济发展、产业结构布局的重要因素之一。煤炭资源是重庆市能源的重要组成部分,在一次能源生产和消费构成中占60%以上。煤炭资源也是重庆市的优势矿产之一。由此可见,煤炭资源对重庆市经济和社会发展有着十分重要的作用。　本文根据重庆市经济、社会和环境可持续发展对煤炭资源的相关要求,对重庆市煤炭资源的勘探和赋存现状;煤炭资源的特点;煤炭资源的开发利用现状;煤炭资源的储量和生产能力;煤炭资源消费需求及可供性以及保障措施等进行了分析研究,从而为重庆市煤炭资源的合理开发利用以及保证重庆市国民经济和社会可持续发展提供了相关依据和对策。　本文根据灰色系统理论,建立了重庆市煤炭资源消费需求的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并对重庆市未来5 年的煤炭消费需求进行了预测。研究表明,基于灰色系统理论建立的预测模型有较高的可信度,同时也可作为其他矿产资源需求的定量预测方法在实际中应用。　在以上分析研究的基础上,提出了重庆市煤炭资源可供性的保障措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 As substantial materials for sustaining development of national economy and society, reserves of mineral resources and their availability in supply is one of major factors affecting a country or a region’s economic prosperity and industries’structure and distribution. Coal is the dominant energy source produced in Chongqing Municipality, accounting for its 60% energy supply and playing a key role in pushing forward Chongqing economy and society. According to requirements that the sustainable development of Chongqing economy, society and environment has made for coal, an overall investigation of Chongqing coal exploration, reserves, distribution, characteristics, exploitation and production capacity has been performed, and suggestions about how to strike a balance between reasonably exploiting coal resources and promoting sustainable development of Chongqing national economy and society have been presented. A grey model, on the basis of grey system theory, for predicting Chongqing coal consumption, has been established with coal consumption in the next 5 years predicted. Prediction results show that the forecast model is of high reliability and can be put to practical use for other mineral products consumption prediction. Based on the previous analytical research, a set of policies guaranteeing Chongqing coal supply has been put forward.更多还原