【作者】 黄晓莉；

【导师】 查奇芬；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 统计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 电力是社会生产和人民日常生活不可或缺的物质资源,是保障经济发展的重要物质基础,在社会进步和人们生活的各方面发挥着重要的作用。近年来,随着国民经济持续快速增长,电力的“瓶颈”问题日益突出,许多地区出现了经济性、时段性的严重缺电,影响到经济的发展和居民的日常生活。面对电力供给偏紧的局面,国务院调整了电力建设“十五”规划,加强电源建设项目。当前,新一轮电力投资开发热同样引人关注,亦不乏隐忧。电力建设“矫枉过正”潜藏着巨大危机,目前的缺电不是简单的供给不足,而是有深层次的原因,需要以科学的发展观看待和解决当前缺电问题。既要降低电能的需求、不增加环保的压力,又不减缓经济的增长、不影响人们舒适的生活,就必须寻找可以提高电能利用率的办法。需求侧管理就是世界各发达国家大力推行和应用的一种能够提高能效的技术。 需求侧管理DSM是综合资源规划IRP的一项主要内容,是当前国际上推行的一种先进的资源管理技术。重在提高终端用电效率和改善用电方式,提供节电资源,减少对供电的依赖。本文在概述电力DSM的概念、方法和特点的基础上对国内外DSM的发展及最新进展给予了综合评述。结合江苏省电力供需特点建立了适合本省的电力预测方法,分别运用了乘积季节模型ARIMA和霍尔特(Holt)双参数指数平滑模型对江苏省的用电量和供电量趋势进行了预测,定性分析了江苏省电网负荷的特点。 面对江苏省的供求矛盾的日益加剧,电量的短缺和电网的峰谷差呈逐年增长的趋势,提出加快江苏省电力建设的同时,进一步加强需求侧管理工作,完善我省的综合资源规划。力图更合理有效的配置和利用电力资源,控制环境污染,以较少的电力消耗,产出更多的物质财富,寻求电力需求最大程度的满足,让需求侧管理成为确保高峰期电力供需平衡和电网安全运行的重要措施。从而,有效促进电力可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Electrical power, as one of the indispensable resources to social production and everyday life, as well as the important material foundation to secure the economic development, plays a very important role in very aspects of social progress and social life. In the recent years, with the sustainable growth of national economy, the "bottleneck" problem of power supply becomes increasingly serious, with severe economy and period-concerned power shortage in many areas, affecting the economic development and daily life of local residents. Confronted with the short supply of electricity, the State Council adjusts the "tenth five-year program" to reinforce the construction of power supply. Equally noticeable is the craze in a new round of investments and developments in power projects, in which hidden concerns may harbour, for excessive construction of power projects may result in enormous dangers. The present power shortage does not simply due to insufficient power supply, but due to more profound reasons, which needs to be viewed and resolved from a scientific and developing aspect. In order to reduce the demand of power energy without affecting environmental protection, economic growth, or the comfortable daily life, a better solution should be found to improve the utilization ratio of electrical energy. Correspondingly, demand side management (DSM), a technology to improve the utilization ratio of electrical energy, is promoted and applied in the developed countries throughout the world.Demand Side Management (DSM), which is a main program of Integrated Resources Plan (IRP), is an advanced technology of resources management applied world-wide nowadays. It focuses on improving the efficiency of terminal use of power, bettering the way of power use and alleviating the reliance on power supply. This thesis makes a comprehensive discussion on the development of DSM at home and abroad and its latest progress, based on a general presentation on its basic concepts, methods and properties. According to the features of power supply and demand in Jiangsu province, the author figures out a corresponding power prediction method, with a view of predicting the tendency of the power consumption and power supply in Jiangsuprovince and making a qualitative analysis of power system load in this area by applying the ARIMA Model and Holt dual Parameters Smooth Model respectively.In view of the increasingly intensified conflicts between power supply and demand, power shortage, and annually widening gap between peak and valley value of power system, it proposes reinforcing the DSM and improving the comprehensive resources programs besides further quickening the construction of power projects.With an aim to distribute and utilize power resources more reasonably and more effectively, control environmental pollution, yield more material wealth with less power consumption, meet the power demand to the largest extent, DSM is supposed to be an important measure to ensure the balance between power supply and demand during peak-hours and the safety in the working of power system, so as to promote the sustainable growth of power effectively.更多还原