【作者】 谢维竹；

【导师】 刘秋生；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 统计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 成长性是公司的灵魂,是股市的生命,是国民经济可持续发展的主要动力,是衡量上市公司经营状况和发展前景的一项重要指标。上市公司成长性尤其体现为公司在自身的发展过程中,其所在的产业和行业受国家政策扶持、具有发展性、产品前景广阔,公司规模呈逐年扩张、经营效益不断增长的趋势。虽然中国医药业整体发展前景向好,但是医药行业各子行业发展不均衡、上市公司核心竞争力不一。在这种形势下,要使投资者仍然能分享医药制造行业的行业经济增长,同时获得稳定的业绩回报,对医药行业上市公司进行成长性评判就显得尤为重要。因此,上市公司成长性研究具有重大的现实意义。 本研究依据医药行业上市公司可公开获得的数据资料,以现代经济理论、现代统计理论和方法为指导,汲取国内外有关上市公司成长性研究的前沿成果,采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,注重研究医药行业上市公司成长性各影响因素与医药行业上市公司成长性的内在联系,系统地分析了医药行业上市公司成长性的状况、特点和影响因素,进一步挖掘各影响因子对医药上市公司成长性的作用机理。通过对医药行业上市公司成长性评判模型构建与分析并对部分医药行业上市公司进行成长性预测,探讨了促进医药行业上市公司成长,优化投资决策的对策建议。 研究认为,医药行业上市公司整体成长性优良,行业发展广阔,但医药行业内各子行业间成长水平不一、各子行业成长不均衡。此外,医药产业集中度低、核心竞争力弱、科研能力不高成为制约医药行业成长性的重要因素。对此,医药行业上市公司应通过资产重组、资源整合提高产业集中度与专业化合作水平;大力推进技术进步,加强产研结合;全方位提高公司竞争力。与此同时,投资者应加强对各子行业的前景分析,抓住政策导向;关注子行业中各股产品核心竞争力,重视企业核心科研能力;研究公司财务基本面信息,特别是其投资报酬率、营运效率、现金实力和融资结构。更多还原

【Abstract】 Growth is the very core of a listed company, the life in the security market, the motive force of the sustained development of national economy, an important indicator which measures the management capabilities and the development prospect of the listed company. In a growing process, listed companies’ growth is specially represented by some tendencies such as being benefit from industrial policy, bright growing prospect, raising sales, extending enterprise scale, increasing economic profits. With diversified core competence, each subsidiary medical industry are in different growing backgrounds though the growing prospect of medical industry is bright. In this situation, investors still hope to share the economic growth in medical industry and to obtain stable investing profits. For this reason, it is of great importance to evaluate listed companies’ growth. Studying on listed companies’ growth has great practical significance.Based on data of listed companies in medical industry which can be openly obtained, guided by modern economic theories as well as modern statistical theories and methods, taking in the latest domestic and abroad achievements in this field, and adopting the methods of normative and positive analysis, this research tries to seek out the internal relationship between the growth of listed companies and its influential elements, systematically analyzes the conditions and the characteristics of listed companies in medical industry and deeply explores the action mechanism of some factors which influence the companies’ growing capacity. Through model construction of listed companies growth evaluation and prediction of their growing level, this research proposes some suggestions to promote listed companies’ growth and to work out profitable investment strategies.Studies have shown that, as a whole, listed companies in medical industry have good growth propensity and bright growing prospect. But each subsidiary medical industry has different growing efficiency. Besides, three factors include low centralization, week core competency and low research capability, turn into keyreasons that hinder the growth of medical industry companies. So the following measures should be taken to strengthen growth potential of medical listed companies: using the experiences of other listed companies to increase the growing potential; enhancing industrial centralization by asset reorganization and resource integration; achieving industrial structure optimization through technology progress. Meanwhile, the following elements also can be taken in to consideration for investors to optimize their investment strategies: paying attention to different growing potential in subsidiary medical industry with discernment of distinct subsidiary medical industrial policies; observing products competitiveness and research-and-development (R&D) capability of the listed companies; analyzing financial ratios and indications especially enterprises’ investment rate-of-return, operation efficiency, cash flow and financing structure.更多还原