【作者】 安强；

【导师】 张凯；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 环境科学， 2005， 硕士

【副题名】A Case Study of Shandong

【摘要】 人类面对着人口、资源和环境等世界性难题,谋求人与自然和谐相处、协调发展的新的发展模式,成为可持续发展理论和循环经济理论形成的现实推动力。21世纪初的二十年是中国的战略机遇期,如何构筑节约型社会以及环境友好型社会逐渐成为科研热点。水资源短缺是21世纪可持续发展中诸多矛盾的焦点。山东省水资源短缺,大量工业和生活污染物及农业面源污染物进入河流、湖泊,水环境污染十分严重、生态环境明显恶化。水环境问题是制约山东经济发展的关键、瓶颈、要害,是生态省建设战略实施的首要制约因素。本文针对山东省对水的需求的严峻形势,在循环经济理论和环境安全研究逐渐成为科研热点的背景下,探讨了水环境安全的评价以及预测等问题,由此得出山东省水环境安全的保障对策和建议。 本文探讨环境安全以及水环境安全的概念。在采用可持续发展理论、循环经济理论、系统工程理论和承载力理论的基础上,建立了水环境安全评价指标体系,将水环境安全体系分为水环境资源综合系统、水环境与社会经济协调性系统和水环境生态安全系统,并通过均方差决策综合分析方法给指标赋权重,使用综合指数法进行水环境安全的综合评价,运用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型,对未来水环境安全趋势进行预测,得出未来水资源供需情况以及水环境状况发展趋势。 论文在建立的理论基础上以山东省为实例,对山东省水环境安全进行了现状评价得出山东省水环境安全水平在全国的位置,山东省的水环境安全状况要远远差于其他生态省份,水环境安全问题已经是生态省建设的第一影响因素。同时得出以及山东省十七地市水环境安全水平总体排序,并且分析出对山东省水环境安全影响比较大的指标主要是水资源条件、供水潜力、水环境、自然灾害、生态安全等因素。 同时利用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型,预测未来生态省建设中水环境安全状况变化趋势,在不考虑节水和新水源开发的前提下,21世纪初期山东省将继续面临严重缺水的态势,同时预测出山东省未来水环境安全发展趋势中影更多还原

【Abstract】 The shortage of water resources is the point at a lot of contradictions of the conception of sustainable development on 21th century. It is very serious in Shandong Province, and a mass of industrial and sanitary wastewater discharged into water environment has led to serious water pollution and harmed the ecological environment. And it has been the most impedimental factor in building of ecological Shandong province.Based on the position, this thesis puts forward the concept of Environment Security (ES) and Water Environment Security (WES) from Environment Security and probing to how to evaluate and forecast it.At first, ES and WES are put forward and explained. WES means that with the development of society, the development of production is leading to the breakage of water circulatory system and decay of water function, which brings on a series of troublesome problem in economy, society and environment. After presenting the basic connotations of index system for Sustainable Development, Circular Economy, Systematic Project and Bearing Capacity, the dissertation establishes the index system for WES based on theory of Fuzzy mathematics. The system consists of water resource, social system and ecology system. Proportions are put by average square difference method and WES is evaluated by general index. And the development trends of WES is forecasted by model GM(1,1).On the basis of above, the thesis evaluates the actuality and history of WES in Shandong, and forecasts the development trends of WES in building of ecological Shandong province. Condition of water resources, water supply potential, water environment, natural disaster, and ecological safety have profound effect on WES. Moreover, Agricultural water consume efficiency, rural non-point pollution, industrialwastewater and household wastewater determinately impact development trends of WES.Contraposing to the evaluation and forecasts results and the problems while people utilizing resource in Shandong, some advice are drawn to ensure water environment utilizing security in building of ecological Shandong province in view of technique means, law measure, management system, emergency monitoring, public consciousness and policy lead.更多还原