【作者】 苏晋；

【导师】 张岐山；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 技术经济与管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 能源是人类社会不可缺少的物质基础,任何一个国家或地区的社会经济发展都离不开能源的支持。因此,一国或地区的政府,都对当地能源问题予以高度的关注。一个科学、合理的能源发展战略,能有力支持当地的社会经济的发展,反之,则会对当地的社会经济发展产生阻碍的作用。要制定科学、合理的能源发展战略,必须让战略的制定建立在对能源形势的正确研究、判断上。本文试对福建省未来能源的供需状况进行建模预测,为福建省面向“十一五”制定的能源战略规划提供依据。 本文分别对福建省能源消费量和供给量建模预测,通过模型预测结果对福建省未来能源缺口进行分析。首先,通过灰色模型对福建省能源消费量建模,模型通过了拟合检验和预测检验,得出灰色模型应用于福建省能源消费量的预测是有效可行的,并对福建省2004～2010年的能源消费量进行预测。其次使用BP神经网络对福建省能源消费量进行建模,经过检验,证明BP神经网络也能够对福建省能源消费量进行有效可行的预测,并对福建省2004～2010年的能源供需量进行了预测。在预测实践中,对于同一个问题,往往可以采用多种预测方法。不同的预测方法往往能提供不同的有用信息,组合预测方法可以综合利用这些信息,尽可能提高预测精度。因此,本文接下来采用了组合预测方法,将前面所得出的两个可行有效的能源预测模型进行组合,经过检验证明,组合预测模型能够对福建省能源消费量进行有效地预测,并且预测精度比灰色模型和神经网络模型更高。通过同样的方法,对福建省能源的供给量也分别建立了灰色模型、神经网络模型和组合预测模型。最后,对能源预测的结果进行分析,测算出未来福建省能源供需缺口,并对福建省能源发展战略的制定提出了若干建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Being a kind of inevitable essential material foundation of society, resource supports the development of society & economy. Therefore, country or region governments all give the concern of the height to local energy development. A scientific and reasonable energy developmental strategy, which can powerfully supports the local development of society & economy, otherwise, it will do harm to the development of the local social economy. To make a scientific and reasonable energy developmental strategy is so important that we must base on the reliable judgment and analyses of the situation of energy. This paper will model and predict the demand and supply of the energy of Fujian Province in the future, and provides the reference for energy strategy planning in Fujian Province’s ’ELEVEN-FIVE’ planning.This paper models and predicts the consumption and supply of Fujian Energy respectively. First, using GM to model and predict the consumption and supply of Fujian, and proved that GM is effective and feasible according to the proof-test so that we can continue to predict the consumption and supply in the period in 2004~2010. Second, using BP ANN to model and predict the consumption and supply of Fujian, and proved that ANN is also effective and feasible according to the proof-test so that we can continue to predict the consumption and supply in the period in 2004~2010. In forecasting practice, different methods will be used to solve a problem, and those methods may provide different useful information about the problem, therefore, we can use combined forecasting model to synthesize these information and improve the precision of forecasting. Therefore, we use combined forecasting model to combine the two model and prove that it really improve the accurate of the predict model and can predict the period of 2004~2010. In the end, author use the data calculated by combined forecasting model to analyze the gap between the demand and supply, and give some advises to the Fujian Province energy strategy in the period of ’Eleven-Five’planning.更多还原