【作者】 林剑文；

【导师】 张烨；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 在经济全球化迅速发展的二十世纪九十年代术,全球掀起了新一轮区域经济一体化浪潮,甚至长期以来一直作为全球多边贸易体制推动者的美国,也开始积极寻求区域贸易合作。超越地缘界限的区域合作及区域经济集团间的合作也有扩展的趋势。到2002年底,WTO公告的区域贸易协定数量已达259项,区域经济一体化显示出强劲的发展势头。 我国在区域经济合作领域起步较晚,但并不影响我国以积极的姿态参与和推动区域经济合作组织的建立及快速发展,顺应全球区域经济发展潮流。2002年11月4 日,双边共同签署《中国一东盟经济合作框架协议》,标志着中国与东盟的经贸合作进入一个崭新的阶段。由于我国与东盟各国地缘接近,历史上经贸往来十分密切,同时双边在经济、贸易结构上竞争性与互补性并存,中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立势必对我国经济发展产生巨大影响。因此,随着双边经贸合作内容的不断扩大与深入,它对我国经济发展产生的效果和影响如何,始终是一个焦点问题。 目前,中国-东盟自由贸易区已有的大量研究文献主要从定性的角度进行理论分析,实证研究局限于利用一些相对简单的统计方法,对双边历史经贸数掘进行整理分析,较少运用经济数学模型研究对我国各经济变量间的整体影响,缺乏定量的系统研究结果。 本文以我国入世和中国-东盟自由贸易区建立为背景, 分析了入世三年我国宏观经济运行趋势及与东盟双边经贸合作发展特点。采用可计算一般均衡方法(CGE),按三次产业共分3个生产部门,为了便于比较自由贸易区成立对我国经济影响变化,在对外贸易结构上把东盟从国外行为主体中分离出来,细分为东盟和世界其他地区两部分,假定经济中只有一种类型的居民,两种生产要素。重新编制 2000年我国社会经济核算矩阵表,估计了三部门的生产函数、居民消费函数、进出口替代弹性等参数,重点模拟这种贸易合作安排对我国未来经济发展可能产生变化的影响,通过分析其中的经济含义,最后提出相应的对策建议。 根据本文实证结果,中国与东盟建立自由贸易区将产生巨大的贸易创造效应,转移效应不明显,我国从中能获得很大的效率收益。但并不是在每个产业部门之间平均分配,同时将产生较大的经济结构调整,带来相应的调整成本,劳动力在部门之间的转移也将产生较大的转移成本。因此,面对中国-东盟自由贸易区建立,我国应该对产业结构调整、劳动力有效转移,农民增收等问题采取相应措施,以降低各种调整成本的付出,并有效预防双边贸易磨擦。更多还原

【Abstract】 At the end of 1990’s, the procedure of economic globalization had been developed rapidly, meanwhile, a new round of regional economic integration has been launched in the world. So much as the United state, which as the leader of global multilateral trade system, it also began to actively seek for all sorts of regional trade cooperation. More and more regional cooperation went beyond the geographical limit, and took place between the regional economic groups, such as the FTA of EU-Mexico, the United state-Australia and so on. A large number of WTO members joined one RTA at least, some of them even have joined ten items of RTA. According to the statistics of WTO, the amount of RTA proclaimed added up to 259 at the end of 2002, regional economic integration showed up strong development tendency.China is later than others in the field of regional economic cooperation, but it didn’t influent China to join and promote developments of regional economic cooperation with active attitude, and in step with it. The two parties signed "the frame agreement of China-Asean all over economic cooperative", it indicated that the economic cooperation between China and Asean came into a new stage. Due to China is closer to Asean in geographical location, bilateral economic cooperation have been very close for a long time, meanwhile, there are some competition and multi-complementary between two sides, thus, the establishment of CAFTA is bound to influent economic developments of our country deeply. With the extension and development of content of mutual economic cooperation, the scope and degree of effect CAFTA bring to our country, which will become a focus all the time.At present, many a studied literature mostly analyzed CAFTA in qualitative side, the demonstration study mostly analyzed some annual mutual economic date by simple statistic method, there are few quantitative results of the studies.In this article, on the background of the entry of WTO and establishment of CAFTA, the author firstly analyzes the development tendency of Chinamacro-economy after joining WTO, and development characters of mutual economic cooperation between China and Asean. And then, he demonstrated the effects of CAFTA on China economy by means of CGE. Author divided three produce departments in all according to industry, assumed that there was a kind of resident, two kinds of produce factors. In order to better analyze the change of China economy under CAFTA, author separated Asean from other countries in the world. Author makes up the SAM of China 2000, re-estimate the parameter of produce equation, consumed equation, and substitute flexibility etc. By mean of analyzing its policy significance, author put forward to some proposals at last.In the light of demonstration result, author think that CAFTA will bring on large of trade created effect, the diversion effect is relatively weak, China can gain a great deal of benefit from it. On the other hand, the distribution of benefits was not averagely per industry department, it will lead to the adjustment of economic structure on a large scale and bring on correspondingly adjusted cost, the large part of it come from diversion of labor. So, under the CAFTA, we have to take some effective measures to adjust economic structure, come off diversion of labor, increase the peasant’s income, minimize all kinds of adjustment cost, and effectively prevent mutual trade conflicts.更多还原