【作者】 姜培红；

【导师】 徐学荣； 王林萍；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 植物病理学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 农药是重要的农业生产资料,在减少作物损失、解决人类食物问题上做出了巨大的贡献,但农药由于不合理的使用带来了许多负面影响,诸如空气污染、生态破坏、食品安全等,成为制约农业可持续发展的瓶颈。本研究以福建省为例进行了影响因素的显著性分析,旨在为解决农药不良影响提供科学依据。 由于农药污染与经济增长有着密切的关系,本研究首先探讨了农药污染与地区生产总值（GDP）的关系,给出了描述两者关系的可选模型,本研究利用1980～2003年的数据作实证分析,结果表明二者呈现“EXPONENT-S”型的关系,即“指数-S”型,建立了数值模型,并得出了当福建省的GDP达到674.1亿元时,农药使用量的增长速度开始下降的结果;而且如果福建省在未来可见的一段时期内没有突发性、爆发性的病虫草等有害生物的发生,福建省农药的年使用量不超过6.55万吨。 为了寻找显著影响农药使用量的因素,本研究以种植业上农药物耗额（Y）来衡量农药使用量,首先提出可能影响的经济因素,包括粮食作物播种面积（X₁）、经济作物播种面积（X₂）、其它作物播种面积（X₃）,农民人均纯收入（X₄）、GDP（X₅）、农村实有劳动力（X₆）、小学文化程度的人数（X₇）:然后利用SPSS统计分析软件对2001～2003年福建省各县数据进行分析以确定影响因素的显著性,结果得到的模型是Y|^=488.291X₂,这说明福建省经济作物播种面积越多,农药花费就越多,而且经济作物的播种面积每增加1公顷,耗费的农药就会增加488.291元。而在对影响农药使用强度进行回归分析来寻找影响显著的因素时,本文以单位播种面积上的农药物耗额（Y）代表农药使用强度,设计的经济因素有粮食作物面积比（X₁）、经济作物面积比（X₂）、农民人均纯收入（X₃）、人均GDP（X₄）、农村实有劳动力的比重（X₅）、人均耕地面积（X₆）、小学文化程度所占的比例（X₇）,经过分析得到的方程是Y|^=79.189X₂,,说明了经济作物的播种面积占的比重越大,花费在单位播种面积上的农药就越多,经济作物播种面积每增加1%,每公顷花费的农药就相应增加79.189元。本文还对设计的其它因素对农药的使用影响不显著的原因进行了分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 Pesticide is an important production material in agriculture, which has tremendously contributed to reducing crop loss, solving mankind food problems. However, because of its irrational and large application, pesticide has brought such ignorant effects as air pollution, environmental destroy, food safety and so on, which has baffled agricultural sustainable development. So taking example of Fujian providence this paper analyzed factors aimed to provide scientific basis for resolution.For the close relationship of pesticide contamination and Gross Domestic Products, it was discussed and the alternative models firstly Then, The data of pesticide contamination and GDP from 1980 to 2003 in Fujian province was used to estimate the numerical model. The results suggested that the existent relationship was a mixed curve of "EXPONENT -S" and When GDP achieved 67.41 billion yuan, and that the amplitude of pesticide contamination begun to decline. Pesticide application of Fujian province would rise lowly unless pest broke out during the visible period in future, and the application would not be more than 6.55 ten thousand ton per year.In order to research the effecting factors on pesticide application, was used to weigh pesticide application. Firstly, the possible economic factors were designed, which included traditional crops planting areas, economic crops planting areas, other crop planting areas, farmers’ pure income per capita, GDP, labor force in countries and the scale of elementary education. Then data of every country from 2001 to 2003 was analyzed by SPSS to ensure the significance of affecting factors. A equation was achieved that was as followed: Y — 488.291 JJMJ. The results showed that the more economic crops were planted, the more money of pesticide was consumed, and every one hectare of economic crops were added, the pesticide expense was add up to 488.291yuan.In this paper, the pesticide application intensity was represented by pesticide expense per unit area which was also analyzed to research the significant factors by SPSS, and the possible factors that included the proponent of traditional crops and economic crops, farmers’ pure income per capita, GDP per capita, cultivated area per capita and elementary educational ratio were designed. The equation that was Y = 79.189 JJMJB showed that the proponent of economic crops was significant, and the larger proponent of economic crops was, the more pesticide per hectare were expensed.The reasons that other factors were not significant were explained in this paper.Eventually, some suggestions for rational utilization of pesticide of Fujian Province were put forward in this paper. Those were as follows. 1) developing the areas of economic plants and increasing its industrialization. 2) Reinforcing the basic education should be used to improve farmer’s educational level, and to help farmers to acquire information. 3) Enhancing the plant protection stations in counties, and improving technology extension and service system. 3) Perfecting the system and mechanism of pesticide management, adoping the HACCP system of the primary products and market access systems should be included.更多还原