【作者】 范玉枝；

【导师】 韩美；

【作者基本信息】 山东师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源是国民经济和社会发展的重要自然资源,是生态环境的控制因素之一。随着经济建设全方位、大规模快速发展,我国工农业和城镇居民生活缺水状况日益加剧,水资源供需矛盾越来越突出,干旱缺水、洪涝灾害、水环境恶化和水土流失成为我国经济社会可持续发展的“瓶颈”。如何处理好水资源与人口、环境和经济可持续发展之间的关系,成为全社会普遍关心的问题,也是科学界研究的热点。水资源承载力已经成为衡量区域可持续发展的一项重要指标,是当前资源科学,尤其是水资源研究中的一个重点和热点问题。水资源承载力分析关系到区域生态环境和社会经济可持续发展,涉及面广、内容复杂。我国目前还没有形成成熟和完善的水资源承载力研究的理论、内涵和方法体系。章丘市位于我国东部地区,具有典型的大陆性气候特征。近几十年来,随着社会经济的发展和人口的增加,加之水资源不合理开发、利用,使章丘市成为我国北方地区缺水城市之一,水资源已经成为章丘市可持续发展的制约因素之一。本研究从章丘市水资源的现状出发,结合章丘市国民经济和社会发展“十五”计划及2010 年、2015 年远景目标,研究分析了在可预见技术、经济和社会发展水平以及生态环境良性发展的条件下,水资源对该地区人口、社会经济(农业、工业等)等各方面的最大支撑能力。本文把常规趋势预测和模糊综合评判相结合,以章丘市社会经济发展趋势为背景,结合章丘市实际情况适当调整发展参数,预测了该地区2010 年和2015 年的需水量、供水量,分析了不同方案下水资源的供需平衡。选取了人均水资源量、水资源利用率、人均供水量、供水模数、生活用水定额、耕地灌溉率、万元工业产值需水量、需水模数、生态环境用水率9 个评价因素,利用模糊综合评判模型对研究区水资源承载能力进行了评价研究,并提出了既能满足生态环境需水要求又符合社会经济发展的战略方案和措施。研究的主要结果是:方案Ⅰ(未来供水以本地水资源为主,不考虑引用客水量、节水和污水回用量),章丘市水资源承载力2010 年和2015 年综合评分值为0.367719、0.364379,说明章丘市本地水资源在现在和未来的十几年中开发利用已接近其开发容量,水资源特别是地下水资源承载力的潜力已经达到极限,水资源的供需矛盾开始突出,本地水资源已经严重不能满足地区需水量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources is important natural resources in the development ofnational economy and social,one of the important factors affecting theecological environment.With the rapid development in the economic and socialprogess,the conflicts between the supply and demand of water resources havebecome more and more outstanding.The problem of water resources have becomerestraints and “bottle neck”against the sustainable development of thenational economy and socoal progress,the problems such as drought and watershortage ,floods and water logging,water enironment deterioration ,watererosion and soil loss.How to properly handle the relations between waterresources and population as well as between environment and sustainable economicdevelopment has become a focus pf social concern and a hot topic of scientificresearch..There for,it is of the significance to reseach the carrying capacityof the regional water resources,optimize the distribution of water resources.Now,well-rounded theory,concept,ways and means have not been founded.Zhangqiu lies in the Eastern China and has the typical continent climate.In the last few decades, Zhangqiu becomes short of water resources because ofthe development of economy, population and fallacious utilization of water.Basedon the status in quo and tenth-five-year plan and 2010,2015 goal,this papercalculates the maximum supporting capacity of social economy,city scale andpopulation by analyzing the current technological,economical,social andecological level.This paper conbines the routine trend forecast with the fuzzy comprehensiveestimation,and forecasts water requirement and water supply requirement in2010,2015. Based on the adjusted parameters of model,this paper confirms nineestimating factors: average water quantity, efficiency of water use,averagewater supply,water supply modulus,living water ration,etc.and estimates thewater resources carrying capacity of Zhangqiu applying the fuzzy comprehensiveestimation.Further, stratagems and measures to meet the waterused demand andthe social,economic development.Some conclusion are as follows:(1)ProjectⅠ: without regard to water indraught,saving,sewage reuse,the更多还原