面向武器的SBA系统中的费用与效能评估技术研究

【作者】 张永良；

【导师】 吴慧中； 肖亮；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 “基于仿真的采办”(Simulation Based Acquisition SBA)是近年来逐步得到美国国防部和工业界认可的一种新的采办理念。本文结合国防重点预研项目“武器装备虚拟采办仿真演示系统”的内容,着重研究武器系统在论证阶段的费用和效能评估技术。 首先,本文研究了武器系统费用与效能的已有评估模型和评估方法。针对复杂武器系统,建立了寿命周期费用的体系结构和由下而上的估算模型,并对武器系统寿命周期费用进行了不确定性与敏感度分析。 然后,研究综合了可用性、可信赖性和能力的武器系统效能评估模型和相应的估算方法。针对其中的武器系统能力指数,通过建立能力分层指标体系,结合层次分析法,提出了基于多专家、多方案的多级综合能力幂函数模型。并利用费效比和费用效能关联关系对武器系统进行进一步的评估和优化。 最后本文构架并实现了一个较为通用的武器系统费用与效能评估软件,并应用于反坦克导弹武器系统的综合评估,得到了较好的结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA) is a kind of new idea of acquisition progressively approved by Department of Defense and Defense Industry organizations in recent years. The paper studies overall the technology about costs evaluation and efficiency evaluation during the demonstration of the weapon system.First, we investigate some classic costs and efficiency evaluation models and methods about the weapon system. According to the complicated weapon system, the LCC (Life of Costs) architecture and the bottom-up coarse granularity method are established, and through the analysis of uncertainty and susceptivity of expenses in the weapon system, the result of costs is improved.Second, we study the weapon’s efficiency evaluation model and some corresponding evaluation methods integrating availability , dependability and capability. According to the capability of the weapon system, combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process, the exponential function model based on the multi-experts and multi-project cases, processing the multistage integration capability is proposed. The weapon system is further evaluated and optimized using the rate (Costs / Efficiency) and the relation between costs and efficiency.Last, A flexible program that can evaluate the costs and efficiency of the weapon system and some complicated system is developed and implemented. At the end of this paper, the program is applied to a Anti-Tank Missile Weapon system, and get the appropriate results.更多还原