【作者】 冯继红；

【导师】 张冬平；

【作者基本信息】 河南农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是世界上最大的小麦生产国、消费国,是国际市场上较有影响的小麦进口国之一。我国小麦供需均衡状况不仅关系到我国粮食安全以及经济的稳定与发展,而且关系到世界粮食市场的稳定。 本文从供给和需求两个角度,描述我国小麦供需均衡的现状及变化特点,分析供给与需求变化的影响因素。将小麦生产的影响因素划分为直接因素、间接因素与政策因素,然后对我国建国以来农业及粮食相关政策的变化及影响进行回顾与分析,从而探讨促进我国小麦供需均衡实现的合理政策取向。研究的主要结论如下: 我国小麦己由产不足需过渡到总量基本平衡的阶段,但存在阶段性、品种结构及区域结构不均衡问题。小麦生产呈现波动上升趋势,年际间波动较大。小麦进口作用已由弥补国内生产不足型转变为丰歉和品种调剂型。小麦消费呈现先升后降的刚性变化趋势,小麦直接消费的总量与比重呈现先升后降的变化趋势,而间接消费总量与比重呈现较快增长。 我国小麦生产的直接影响因素包括播种面积、技术进步、劳动投入、物质投入、气候及自然灾害等,间接影响因素包括耕地面积及其质量、农业科研及科技推广水平、农业基础设施建设、农产品及农业生产资料价格体系等。影响小麦生产的政策主要包括农业生产方式政策、农业科研投资政策、农业基本建设投资政策及粮食定购与价格政策等。小麦消费的影响因素包括人口增长、收入水平提高、城市化进程、农村市场发育及人口流动等。 我国小麦供需失衡的根源在于生产的大幅波动,所以我国小麦供需均衡调控政策的着力点应该落在小麦生产这一关键环节上。而政策对小麦生产的影响作用是间接的,只能通过促进小麦生产有利因素,抑制不利因素,达到对小麦生产的间接调控作用。建国以来,我国农业及粮食政策变革经历了多次反复与波折,但总体趋势是逐步实行市场化取向的,对小麦等粮食生产的保护与促进机制日益完善。 最后,提出了建立我国小麦供需均衡理论模型的初步构想,模型中包括一个消费部门,n个生产部门,3个初始要素(劳动、资本与土地)。 根据以上研究结论,本文提出一些促进小麦生产,实现小麦供需均衡的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is the biggest country of wheat production and consumption in the world and one of the countries whose wheat import has great influence on the world grain market. So equilibrium of wheat supply and demand has great impact not only on the food security, economic stability and development in China but also on the stability of world grain market.In this dissertation, the changing characteristic and trend and its influential factor of wheat supply and demand in China are analyzed. The influential factors of production are fallen into three parts: direct factors, indirect factors and the policies. Then the policies on agriculture and grain are reviewed., in order to find the right direction on the policy-making for realizing the wheat supply-and-demand equilibrium. The main results are given as follows:Currently the aggregate yields can satisfy the demand of wheat in China. But there still is unbalance between wheat supply and wheat demand in different regions, different period and different varieties. Wheat production experienced ascending and waving trend during past four decades. The difference between annual productions is usually great. The function of wheat import has changed from filling the gap between production and consumption to regulating offset of quantity and variety. The consumption of wheat experienced rigid trend that has changed from ascending to descending. The direct total consumption of wheat and its percentage experienced the change from ascending to descending. The indirect total consumption of wheat and its percentage increase rapidly.The direct factors on wheat production include technology, labor input, capital, whether and nature disaster. While the indirect factors are the quantity and quality of cultivated land, agriculture R&D and technology spillover, agriculture infrastructure, the output price of agriculture and the factor price of agricultural production. The policies that have influenced on wheat production include agricultural producing更多还原