【作者】 陈顺礼；

【导师】 熊黑钢；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 自然地理学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源是人类生息不可缺少的自然资源。由于水的不可替代性和可利用水资源的有限性,以及经济发展和人民生活对水资源的需求量不断增大,水源污染也越来越严重,使得水资源短缺问题日益显著。尤其是在极端干旱的新疆,水资源更加成为制约社会经济发展的限制因素。因此,重视水资源的宝贵价值,合理利用和科学管理水资源具有重大的意义。而分析讨论区域水资源量、水资源供需平衡状况,可对该地区经济发展规划、可持续发展和水资源保护提供科学依据。本着这种认识,本文选取地处新疆南部,气候极端干旱的克里雅河流域为研究区,采用系统模拟的理论和方法,把水资源看作为一个系统来分析该区的水资源供需平衡状况。在研究过程中,为了更加精确细致的反映区域的水资源供需平衡实际情况,以旬为研究时段,分析了流域平水年(P=50%)和偏枯水年(P=75%)的水资源旬供需平衡状况。同时,为了反映流域供需协调程度,引入了供需协调评价模型,对流域的的供需协调程度做了评价。鉴于以旬为研究时段而导致的基础数据繁多,系统庞杂的情况,本文以水资源系统模拟理论为基础,应用现代先进计算机技术,开发了“克里雅河流域水资源供需模拟系统”。在系统中,根据克里雅河流域的气象、水文、地质、地貌等自然环境条与系统的关系,以及社会经济与生态环境条件,在获得水资源数据的基础上,建立了水资源数据信息库。按照供需平衡分析的需要,系统定量计算了不同水平年的天然水资源及工程供水能力,各部门不同水平年的需水量及耗水量;区域内不同水平年的水资源余缺情况和供需平衡水平,以及流域内不同水源和需水部门之间的协调系数。模拟计算成果显示,平水年克里雅河流域盈余水量为11724.19 万立米,偏枯水年盈余水量仅为334.86 万立米,水资源量总体上供大于需,但是从年内各旬供需平衡来看,不管是平水年还是偏枯水年,都存在缺水现象,平水年旬最大缺水量达1861.8万立米,偏枯水年旬最大缺水量达2010.46 万立米,春旱问题始终存在。同时由现状年的供需平衡水量看,当前水资源供给能力接近饱和,随着社会经济的发展,需水量不断增加,水资源供需矛盾会日益显著。为了解决这些矛盾,本着“开源节流”,经济效益和生态效益兼顾的原则,在水资源供需模拟的基础上,对流域的发展规划提出了一些建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources are the lifeblood of all living beings. Usable water resource is unsubstitutable and limited, the economic development and demand for water resource of people’s lives are increasing constantly, and the pollution of waterhead is more and more serious too. All these make the shortage of water resource remarkable day by day. Especially in extremely arid Xinjiang, water resource is the limiting factor, which restrict social and economic development. So, paying attention to the precious value of the water resource, rational utilization and scientific management water resource have great meanings. Analyze and discuss the amount of regional water resources, the state of equilibrium of supply and demand of water resource, can offer scientific basis to the regional economy development programming, sustainable development and water resources protection. Due to this kind of understanding, this paper select Keriya Valley, where locate in the south of Xinjiang and have extreme aridity climate, as the studying area, adopt System Simulation theory and method, to analyse water resource equilibrium state of supply and demand through regard water resource as one system. In the course of studying, for more accurately and particularly reflect the actual conditions of actual conditions of equilibrium of supply and demand of region water resource, this paper regard ten days as study period, to analyze water resource equilibrium status of supply and demand every ten days in flat water year (P =50%) and lean water year (P =75%). Meanwhile, in order to reflect harmonious degree of valley supply and demand, this paper use appraisive model about equilibrium of supply and demand, evaluate harmonious degree of valley supply and demand. Seeing the situation that the basic data caused for studying in period with ten days is various, and system is numerous and jumbled. This paper based on systematic simulation theory of water resource, use the modern and advanced technology of computer, have developed" simulation system of Keriya Valley of water resource supply and demand". In the system, base on the relationship between weather, hydrology,更多还原