【作者】 陶海飞；

【导师】 王维安；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着贸易和资本流动全球化,一国经济和汇率受到外部因素的高度影响,如何协调内外均衡成为各国面临的共同挑战。外汇冲销干预在理论界和实践中不断受到关注,但其有效性问题至今仍存在争论。90年代外汇体制改革以来,我国同样面临外部资本不断涌入下,如何实现人民币汇率稳定和内部经济均衡的两难选择。我国外汇冲销干预是否有效,以及能否在新的经济形势下继续发挥作用,成为本文关注的主题。 本文在分析我国特殊制度背景和汇率形成机制后,对我国1994年以来实行的冲销干预效果进行了实证研究。结果显示,我国国际收支出现持续顺差,外汇市场经常处于超额供给状态,但人民币汇率波动幅度很小。人民银行大规模干预吸收了外汇市场大部分供求压力,在汇率稳定过程中起到了至关重要作用,但也造成外汇储备过快增长。为稳定货币供给,人民银行采取了相应对冲措施。但我国外汇对冲规模和干预投放的人民币规模之间存在较大货币缺口,并没有实现完全意义上的冲销效果。未对冲的外汇占款成为我国基础货币增长的主要来源,因此货币政策陷入被动地位,货币增长率经常达不到预期目标,并造成三次明显的内外经济冲突现象。 接着本文对造成这种现象的原因进行了深入分析。首先,人民银行过于注重人民币汇率的静态稳定,汇率失去了对国际收支的调节功能。同时,现有非均衡汇率扭曲了资源的真实配置,降低了资金效率,从长期看人民币一直存在调整压力,进而影响到内部经济的协调发展。其次,由于制度不健全,我国外汇干预无法发挥货币、资产组合和信号预期等市场传导效应。同时,现有冲销干预偏重于货币数量调节,没有协调金融资产之间的收益率联系。因此,在利率和外汇不对称管制下,市场收益变化经常跟干预的汇率调控目标相背离,随之出现的阶段性、持续性逆向资产调整行为,进一步加剧了汇率和经济失衡。最后人民银行不得不加大干预规模,承担较大的干预操作成本。此外,跟巨大的外汇干预规模相比,我国现有对冲空间和工具相对狭小,人民银行无法实现货币的完全对冲,未对冲的货币缺口制约了我国货币政策的独立性。 随着加入WTO和资本开放进一步深入,我国冲销干预面临的外部环境将发生更多还原

【Abstract】 With trade and capital flow globality, internal-external economic equilibrium becomes monetary authorities common challenge. Sterilized intervention has been an important policy instrument in practice. But its effectiveness is still controversial now.Since foreign exchange system reform in 1994 and constant capital inflow, our contry has also been in a dilemma of keeping RMB rate stable and internal economy balance. Is the sterilized intervention in China effective? And could it be durative in new open economy circumstance? These questions are the focuses in this thesis.this thesis analyzes the speciality of exchange rate mechanism in China, and then take a demonstration study on sterilized intervention effect. Results indicate that capital inflow bring on continued balance of payments surplus, and the People s Bank keeps RMB rate stable successfully by vast and direct intervention operations, which leads to the rapid increase of foreign reserve. The People s Bank also takes some sterilization operations. But data indicate that there is a large gap between the money supply by foreign intervention and money withdrawal by sterilization operations. The non-sterilized money becomes the main part of basic money supply, and even leads to remarkable internal-external economy conflicts.With further analysis, the reasons for conflicts are mainly based onfollowing points: Firstly, the people s Bank pays too much attention to the static rate stability, and the RMB rate loses the function of adjusting the balance of payments. Secondly, our country lacks market condition to bring the intervention s monetary channel, portfolio channel and signaling channel into effect. Meanwhile, the sterilized intervention attachs importance to monetary quantity adjustment, and neglect harmonizing different financial assets yields. So the capital yields often更多还原