【作者】 马玉芹；

【导师】 徐自力；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 环境科学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着长春市机动车保有量迅速增长,机动车向空气中排放的有害物质与日俱增,机动车尾气污染已成为公害。为今后科学了解城市机动车污染和城市空气环境发展趋势,本文在长春市环境空气质量现状调查和实测的基础上,分析了环境空气中NO₂时空分布规律,并在研究区域内建立基准年固定源和流动源的排放清单,计算了研究区域内机动车排放的NO_x 污染分担率。通过系统分析我市大气污染源构成,并结合长春市城市总体规划、供热规划以及国家机动车污染控制技术政策,运用先进的ADMS-Urban 大气扩散模型,预测了机动车标志污染物NO_x 排放量和排放浓度,在此基础上,分析了机动车污染的发展趋势并确定了NO_x 总量控制目标。预测结果表明,环境空气中机动车排放NO_x 污染分担率呈加速上升趋势,若使城市空气环境中NO_x 的浓度满足二级标准,机动车排放NO_x 的最高允许排放量为5.80 万t/a,机动车保有量应控制在131 万辆内,机动车排放达到该目标值的时间为2016 年。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous rapid economic development and the approaching of cars entering families, an increasing possession quantity of mobile vehicles is being achieved rapidly in our country. So mobile vehicles are emitting air pollutants increasingly. And the environmental pollution caused by exhaust gas is becoming main environmental problems in large and medium scale cities. Nitrogen oxide (NO_x) pollution level is aggravating in Changchun city, and it has become the second big pollutant inferior to total solid particle (TSP). In order to improve the air quality and make the management foreseeable, precaution and controlling of exhaust gas pollution must be done strategically. Based on the air quality investigation and monitoring, space and time dimension distribution of NO2 was analyzed in the paper. Within the study zone, emission list of fixation and flow resources were found in benchmark year and NO_x distribution rules and pollution shared rate was calculated. Through analysis on structure of pollution resources in Changchun city, combining with general plan, heating plan, control techniques and national policies, ADMS-Urban air diffusion model, the quantity and concentration of mobile vehicles indication pollutant NO_x were predicted. And according to the prediction results, the pollution trend of mobile vehicles exhaust gas was analyzed and the total quantity control goal was given in the paper. Investigation and monitoring results on air quality present condition in Changchun city showed that, in benchmark year 2003, NO_x emission quantity was 57470 t, and the emission quantity was 18730t per year, of which shared rate of mobile vehicles was 32.6%. All kinds of emission resources of whole city contribution to ground air environment was 0.041 mg/m3 and mobile vehicles shared 35.5%.mobile vehicle concentration shared rate was more than emission shared rate, mainly because exhaust gas emission height was low and was difficult to be diffused and be diluted. By the end of year 2003, in Changchun city, the possession number of mobile vehicles was 252900 and the average increase rate was 16.9% in recent 5 years. According to the main domestic cities mobile vehicles actual increase situation and the prediction results in recent years, combining with Chinese car development plan, in the near future 10～15 years, the increase rate will be 15% or so for small cars, 6～9% or so for large truck while 12% or so for motor cycle in 2～3 years and after 4 years this increase trend will decline a bit and abate, then average increase rate will decline to 8～10%. With the possession quantity of mobile vehicle increase yearly, the exhaust gas emission will increase slowly. By the year 2010～2015, NOx emission shared rate of mobile vehicles will be 47.7% and 58.8% respectively, then the concentration of NOx in the air of Changchun city will reach 0.061mg/m3 and 0.077mg/m3, of which mobile vehicle shared 52.2% and 64.4% respectively. Controlled by standard of Zone II yearly average value 0.1 mg/m3 and based on background concentration of NOx in air and fixation emission resources effect on air quality in Changchun city, total quantity control goal value 58000t per year of NOx mobile vehicles emission was predicted and the number of possession of mobile vehicles should be controlled within 1310000. According to the prediction results and emission trend of更多还原