【作者】 刘玉博；

【导师】 吕红平；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 人口学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 我国目前处在城市化加速和产业结构转型的关键时期,制定科学的城市发展战略对于推进城市化进程和优化升级产业结构尤为重要。文章在对城市规模聚集的经济增长效应进行理论分析基础上,对我国城市化进程和城市人口规模体系现状进行了研究。文章认为,我国城市化发展速度较快,但仍滞后于工业化进程;小城市的数量较多,不利于第三产业发展和产业结构优化;不同规模城市的地区分布不均衡。进而以我国2002 年278 个地级及以上城市为样本,对城市规模聚集的经济增长效应进行了量化分析,得出结论:30 万～1500 万人口的城市规模为可行规模,小于30 万或大于1500 万会引起聚集不经济,100 万～500 万是城市最佳经济规模,此时城市的聚集效益最高。由此,提出了建设国际化大城市、大力发展中等城市、加快发展现有小城市的大中小城市协调发展的城市发展思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is in a key period of accelerating urbanization and adjustment of industrial structure, so it is very important to plan a scientific urban development strategy. Based on the theory analysis of the economic increasing effect of urban scale agglomeration, the paper gives a research on Chinese urbanization and the existing system of city’s population scale. The paper points out, although the urbanization of our country has a high speed, it is still lagged behind the industrialization. The amount of small city is too big, which is disadvantage to the development of the third industry and the optimization of industrial structure. The regional distribution of different scale city is not in the balance. After that, by sampling 278 cities of China, we make a calculation of the economic increasing effect of urban scale agglomeration. And we draw the conclusion that the city scale which is between 300 thousand and 15 million is proper, which is below 300 thousand or exceed 15 million is not proper, which is between 1 million and 5 million is the best scale. From the analysis above, the paper puts forward coordinated urban developing strategy to develop international cities, to enhance middle-scale cities and present small cities.更多还原