【作者】 刘延民；

【导师】 邵培基；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 自2002 年,按照国务院的相关政策,中国电信进行南北分拆以来,中国电信运营市场可谓波澜起伏、风起云涌。固定市场与移动市场之间的争夺不断升级,固话用户的大量流失使固定运营商面临着巨大的生存危机。在这种环境下,电信经营者已经充分认识到了“以客户为中心”的必要性,并将更多的精力投入到客户的管理上。本文对A 电信公司的客户流失问题进行研究,论文以A 电信公司的客户数据为基础,研究了一种基于SAS 统计软件之上的客户流失建模方法,对包括数据的准备、变量的转换、模型的构建以及模型的评价在内的整个建模过程进行了详细分析和研究,并从客户关系营销策略的角度讨论了模型应用问题。本文按照数据挖掘的任务将模型构造分为“基于预测任务的数据建模”和“基于解释任务的数据建模”两种,并将各自的优势体现于具体的建模过程中。基于“预测任务”的数据模型为企业提供了一份可靠的营销名单;基于“解释任务”的数据模型为企业管理者刚好的了解客户行为提供了支持。在两种建模过程中,文章都体现了“数据建模的任务是辅助管理”这样的思想,努力使得整个建模过程易于理解和分析。本文试图在数据挖掘技术的实际应用方面做出一份贡献,当然也希望能起到抛砖引玉的作用,因此在本文最后,提出了几个有待于进一步研究的课题,比如可视化数据探索技术的应用等等。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the earlier period of direct marketing, the income came mostly fromthe new customer. However, the market is more saturated today. This makes itmore difficult to obtain the newer and the cost is higher. So a lot of thecompanies cost more and more in reserving the customer. One of the ways toreserve the customer is taking some action before they get lost. And this is thevalue of the custom churn prediction.With the research object of data mining methods using in the customchurn prediction, the basis of the theories on CRM and DM, the paperanalyses the data of a telecommunication company using the tool of SAS. Thepaper makes a research of the whole proceeding, including the proceeding ofpreparing data, converting variables, building models and evaluating models.The paper builds one model for prediction and one for explanationaccording the task. The model for prediction provides a marketing list for theenterprise. The model for explanation helps the managers to understand thecustomer’s behaviors. And both of the two models is readability in theirbuilding proceeding because the paper believes that the model is the assistantof the management.The paper tries to make a contribution in the actual use of data miningtechnology, and it also brings forward some new topics about the research,such as exploratory data visualization etc.更多还原