【作者】 卢江勇；

【导师】 傅国华； 过建春；

【作者基本信息】 华南热带农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 海南约有200万平方公里的海域面积,其海洋资源优势明显,渔业发展潜力巨大。促进渔业经济增长是海南经济可持续发展的基础。面对中国—东盟自由贸易区的稳步推进,渔业经济将成为海南省重要的新的经济增长源,也是同周边国家共同开发南海资源的客观要求。本文实证分析海南渔业经济发展,试图找出渔业经济中的投入产出要素数量变化与产出之间的关系,论证海南渔业经济增长方式及其影响因子,为海南渔业健康和谐发展提供参考。 本文以规范研究与实证研究相结合,定性分析与定量分析相结合。首先,利用海南渔业经济的统计数据,通过实证研究,揭示了渔业经济增长的现状与特征。其次,应用统计学与计量经济学方法,采用线性回归和非线性回归分析方法,借助EXCEL和SAS8.1软件对数据进行模拟估计,从统计检验、经济计量检验和预测检验等方面来比较,优选模型,建立了海南捕捞业生产函数,养殖业生产函数和渔业生产函数。海南捕捞业生产函数为: Y=1.91316E-07X₁^1.140527X₂^1.20921,海南渔业养殖业生产函数为: Y=0.000047 X₁^0.0769X₂^0.6357X₃^1.3571,海南渔业生产函数为: Y=2.04604x10^-7(0.0827X₁^0.816735+0.34429X₂^0.816735+0.259519X₃^0.816735+0.31346X₄^{0.8167352.970303}模型分析发现海南渔业经济,养殖业经济,捕捞业经济均呈规模报酬递增趁势。第三,依据模拟建立的海南渔业生产函数分析结果,进一步分析劳动力、资本、自然资源、技术进步、制度、其它（结构）等因素对海南渔业经济增长影响。第四,根据海南渔业生产函数模型测算出海南渔业经济增长的粗放度91.87%,为高度粗放型。第五,本文的研究进行总结,并进行了相应的发展渔业经济的对策讨论。 最后,根据定量分析与定性分析的结果,结合海南渔业经济的实际情况,提出了进一步促进渔业经济济增长的对策建议,为决策者提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hainan Sea covers about 2 million square kilometers. Hainan boasts the great advantages in the oceanic resources and develops the fishery economy with enormous potentiality. The promotion to the fishery’s economic growth is the foundation of the sustained development of Hainan economy. With China-ASEAN Free Trade Area moving forward steadily, fishery economy will be the important and new source to grow, and the common exploitation of South China Sea resources with the neighboring countries requires developing the fishery economy objectively in Hainan. We can come up with the new idea and thinking for healthy and harmonious development of fishery of Hainan as the reference through the positive analysis of development of Hainan fishery economy. Meanwhile we find the quantitative relationships between the elements of input and output and prove the style of economic growth of Hainan and find the influence factors.This dissertation has studied the route of the economic growth of Hainan and methods of optimization by combining the positive research with the normative research, the qualitative analysis with the quantitative analysis. Firstly, it describes the current situation and its features in the fishery’s economic growth by utilizing the statistical data of Hainan fishery economy though the positive study. Secondly, with the application of statistics and econometrics, adoption of linear regression and non-linear regression methods, the dissertation selects the good model by comparison from the different aspects including economics, statistics and econometrics and prediction, establishes the production function of catching industry of Hainan, the breeding’s production function of Hainan and the fishery’s production function of Hainan correspondingly finally, and has imitated and predicted to the fishery economy in Hainan by estimating and imitating from the data with EXCEL and SAS8.1.The production function of catching industry of Hainan is written: Y = 1.91316E-07X₁^1.140527X₂^1.20921The breeding production function of fishery of Hainan is written:更多还原