【作者】 宋毓；

【导师】 卫海燕；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)研究是目前全球变化研究的热点和前沿问题,LUCC模型是深入了解土地利用和土地覆被变化复杂性的重要手段,其作用可以概括为:对土地利用和土地变化情况进行描述、解释、预测和制定对策。土地利用变化的复杂性决定了土地利用研究必须采取复杂系统的理论方法,特别是建立基于复杂系统思想的数学模型,这是土地利用过程研究的重要领域。目前国际上在复杂系统理论的背景下,利用地理元胞自动机(Geo-CA)模型模拟地理时空过程的复杂行为是地理建模的前沿地带。 从模型的角度看,Geo-CA模型是一种基于微观个体相互作用的空间离散动态模型,元胞间的相互作用完全是基于空间邻近关系的,元胞的形态与GIS的栅格数据十分相似,所以它能够与基于栅格的GIS系统很好的集成。一方面增强了GIS软件的动态建模能力,另一方面GIS强大的空间数据处理能力为Geo-CA模型数据准备、数据处理和模型结果的动态显示提供支持,二者结合可以组成优势互补的动态系统,实现对土地利用变化过程的模拟。 阿克苏河是新疆三大国际河流之一,其所在的阿克苏河流域因农业开发较早,资源丰富,自然条件又好,现已成为塔里木盆地北部乃至新疆最重要的农区之一。近几年随着经济的发展,人口的增多,阿克苏河流域土地沙漠化趋势严重,生态环境受到威胁,通过建立流域土地利用变化动态模型,不仅可以为流域土地的合理利用及河流水资源的合理调配提供决策依据,同时也为流域居民的生产生活、生态环境、经济的协调发展提供重要保障。 本论文以阿克苏河流域为研究样区,在GIS软件和Geo-CA理论模型的支持下,从两个时相土地利用专题图的叠加分析和转移分析入手,结合土地利用变化的计量模型,分析土地利用动态变化特征,依据研究区水系和交通图分析模型控制因素,构建控制因素层,并结合社会经济数据调整模型参数,确定合理的邻居及转换规则,经过反复的调试和修改,最终构架出合理的土地利用动态演变模型及软件系统。GeoCA-Landuse模型模拟土地利用变化的基本思想是引入土地单元的生命特征,每一种土地单元都有青年、中年、老年和衰亡这样的生命周期,根据每种土地类型自身的年龄及生存的环境来决定其繁殖、成熟、死亡等行为,模拟土地利用类型的动态演变。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study on land use and land cover change (LUCC) is a hotspot and frontier issue in the global change research fields at present. LUCC model is an important means to understand the complication of land use and land cover change in depth, and its functions can be summarized to describe, explain, predict and make the countermeasure to land use and land change. The complexity of land use and change determines land use research must take the theory and method of the complex systems, especially set up mathematics models based on the complex systems thoughts, which is an important field to land use course studies. Under the background of the complex systems theory in the world at present, it is the frontier area of geographic modeling that using Geographic Cellular Automata model to simulate geographic space-time course.From the point of model view, Geo-CA model is one kind of dynamic model on the basis of micro- individual’s interactive. Cells’ shape is similar to the shape of raster data of GIS, so it can be integrated with GIS. On the one hand it can strengthen the dynamic modeling ability of GIS software, on the other hand, the strong spatial processing ability of GIS give the support to Geo-CA model data preparation, data procession and model results dynamic display. Integration of GIS and Geo-CA can make up complementary advantages and dynamic system, and realize dynamic simulation to the course of land use and land change.The Aksu River is one of the international rivers of Sinkiang, and the Aksu Valley has been one of the most important rural areas of the north of the Tarim Basin, because its farming exploiture is earlier, resource is abundant, and natural condition is beautiful. In recent years with the development of economy, the increasing of population, the desertification trend of the Aksu River Valley is more serious, and ecological environment is threatened. Through setting up the valley land use dynamic model, can not only merely offer the decision basis for the valley rational land use and distribution of water resource, but also give the important support for life and production, ecological environment, and economic coordinated development of the River Valley residents at更多还原