【作者】 潘辉；

【导师】 唐海燕；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 进入90年代以后,随着经济全球化进程明显加快,外资流入我国的年均增长率28.9%。从1993年开始,我国已连续多年成为全球仅次于美国的第二大资本流入国,并于2002年超过美国。从外资结构上看,FDI占全部利用外资的比重逐步上升,自1993年起一直保持在70%以上。与此同时,我国的出口额飞速增长,从1983年的222.3亿美元到2004年的5933.6亿美元,22年间增长了26倍多,平均年增长率为16.1%,尤其在我国加入WTO以来出口增幅呈高速增长的态势。此外,我国出口的产品结构也在发生很大的变化,出口工业制成品所占比重从1993年的77.5%上升到2003年的92.1%,呈现出明显的升级趋势。那么FDI对我国的出口贸易到底关系如何?这是关系到我国有关政策制定和实践的重大问题,有着非常重要的理论价值和现实意义。 关于FDI对出口贸易的影响问题在学术界由来已久。比较早的像萨谬尔森(Samuelson,1949)和蒙代尔(Robert Mundell,1957),他们认为FDI会替代投资母国与东道国之间的进出口贸易,因此会削弱东道国的出口贸易,日本学者小岛清(Kiyoshi Kojima)则得出了相反的结论,而且这场争论还在进行之中。但这些研究大都是关于FDI对出口贸易总量影响的研究,比较单一,与目前的实际情况差距较大。基于此,笔者认为FDI对出口贸易的影响是一个系统的整体,包括“质”和“量”两个方面。 在以上认识的基础上,本文围绕我国FDI和出口的情况,用计量分析的方法对此进行了实证分析,从总量、结构和出口竞争力几个方面分别进行了论证,最后对实证的结果进行了讨论,得出了结论,并提出了相应的政策建议。 诚然,正如本文提出的理论,FDI对出口的影响是一个系统的整体,这个系统包括很多方面,是一个涉及领域宽泛、具有一定理论性和实务性的课题。由于本人的水平和研究的篇幅所限,本文只是涉及到很窄的面,只能说是一个引子,希望能够产生“抛砖引玉”之效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ever since the 1990s, as the economic globalization process has obviously been accelerated, the foreign capitals flowing into China have increased by 28.9 percent every year. Since 1993, China has been the second largest country in capital flowing for years in the world with America ranking first and has exceeded America in 2002. Looking from structure of the foreign capitals, the proportion that FDI accounts for in the total utilization of foreign capitals has been rising progressively, keeping above 70% all the time since 1993. Meanwhile, the export volume of China has been increasing at full speed, from US$222.3 million in 1983 to US$5933.6 million by 2004, increasing by more than 26 times within 22 years, and the annual growth is 16.1% on average. This trend of high speed development is particularly obvious since China’s accession to the WTO. In addition, the product structure that China exports has also been changing very greatly. The export proportion of the industrial manufactured products has been rising from 77.5% in 1993 to 92.1% in 2003, demonstrating the obvious upgrading trend. Then what on earth is the relation between FDI and China’s export trade? This is closely related to such important issues as the making and practicing of relevant policies in China, which have very important theory value and realistic meaning.It has been a hot topic in the academia about FDI impact on export trade for a long time. Samuelson (Samuelson,1949) and Mundell(Robert Mundell.1957) pioneered in the field of this research. They think FDI will substitute the foreign trade between the home country and host country of the investment, therefore weaken the export trade of the host country. Japanese scholar Kiyoshi Kojima draws the opposite conclusion, and this kind of dispute is still under way. But the focus of research is mostly study on total amount of export trade of FDI, which is monotonous and relatively in great disparity with present conditions. Based on the above-mentioned reviews, the author of this thesis thinks FDI impact on export trade is a whole system, mainly including two respects, which are "quality" and "quantity".On the basis of the above understanding, centering round China’s FDI and export situation, this thesis carries on real example study with measure analysis method from the following aspects respectively, including export competitiveness, total amount, and structure. Finally it draws the conclusion, and puts forward some suggestions on the corresponding policy.Certainly, just as the theory that this thesis puts forward, FDI is the systematic whole that influences the export, which includes a lot of respects, involving a series of subjects of extensive, theoretical and practical nature. Due to the author’s limited level and the restricted space of this study, this thesis only touches upon a very narrow surface. It can be said to be an introduction, hoping to produce the result of "casting a brick to attract jade".更多还原