华东电网备用容量评估方法的研究

【作者】 于洋；

【导师】 甘德强；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的不断发展,用电负荷持续快速增加,装机容量相对不足,因而在全国各地出现了不同程度的缺电现象。缺电制约了各地经济的发展,同时造成了巨大的经济损失,同时由于系统充裕度水平下降,影响了电网的安全稳定运行。因而,确保系统保持充足且合理的备用容量显得十分必要。 本文分析了国内当前大都采用的确定性备用评估方法并指出其不足之处。随后从可靠性的角度综述了发电系统备用容量的评估方法,并以PJM和NEMMCO为例分别介绍了解析和模拟的评估方法。 最后采用解析法和模拟法评估了华东电网2003年的备用情况,并对比了各自的计算结果,指出模拟法更适合于华东电网。通过分析,指出了当前华东的备用的主要问题是装机容量不足,最后讨论了能源结构、网络约束、可靠性指标等问题,并提出了一些建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the durative developement of economic and electric load in China, installed capacity is insufficiency correspondingly. The shortage of electric power which is prevalent all over the country restricts economic development and leads to great loss. On the other hand, network stable operation is influenced without sufficient adequate reserve capacity. Therefore, it is necessary to keep enough and reasonable reserve.This thesis discusses certain method which is adopted by most of electrical power companies in China and points out its disadvantages. In succession, from the point of the view of reliability, methods for reserve capacity evaluation of generating system were presented. Mthods which are adopted by PJM and NEMCO respectively are introduced.Reserve level of East China Grid in 2003 is evaluated using analytic and Monte Carlo methods respectively. Results are presented and compared. For East China Grid, lack of reserve capacity is the main problem at present. At last, some factors, such as energy sources structure, network restriction and reliability indexes, are discussed and some suggestions are presented.更多还原