【作者】 黄瑾；

【导师】 王基建；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 企业并购财务风险是指由于并购定价、融资、支付等各项财务决策所引起的企业财务状况恶化或财务成果损失的不确定性,是并购价值预期与价值实现严重负偏离而导致的企业财务困境和财务危机,是各种并购风险在价值量上的综合反映,是贯穿企业并购全过程的不确定性因素对预期价值产生的负面作用和影响,是企业并购成功与否的重要影响因素。 本文针对并购的准备阶段、实施阶段、整合阶段财务风险的不同表现形态,具体分析了企业并购全过程中财务风险的成因(主要包括定价评估风险、融资风险、偿债风险和并购后财务整合风险等),并说明产生并购财务风险的根本原因在于信息的不对称性和过程的不确定性,在此基础上建立了企业并购财务风险的评价指标体系;然后通过德尔菲法获取指标值,按照层次分析法评价指标权重,依据财务风险的成因构建了并购财务风险的模糊综合评价模型,从而对企业并购财务风险进行了度量;最后选用一个具体的并购例子对该模型和分析过程进行了例证,并对并购财务风险的控制提出了相应的对策。 本文主要立足于目前的现实环境来探讨我国企业并购过程中的财务风险,并就财务风险中的具体成因进行了详细的探讨,提出了一些观点和解决的办法。文中主要运用经济数学的研究方法对企业并购中的财务风险进行了量化评价。具体包括:1.因素分析法,用于分析影响企业并购中财务风险的成因;2.模糊数学方法,主要通过德尔菲法获得指标值,层次分析法获得指标权重,再利用模糊数学的评价模型结合一个具体例子来验证了企业并购中财务风险的模糊综合评价指标体系的运用。 本文的创新之处在于:1.全面分析了企业并购过程中的财务风险的主要影响因素,并在此基础上建立了评价并购财务风险的指标体系;2.在财务风险的度量与评价过程中应用了模糊综合评价的方法,并构建了并购财务风险的模糊综合评价模型。 本课题来源于国家自然科学基金资助项目——《企业并购风险识别系统的研究》(编号为:70172050)及其后续研究课题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The financial risk of enterprises’ merging, refers to the worsen of financial situation of enterprises caused by financial activity directly or indirectly that involved by merging enterprises and the uncertainty of financial achievement losses of each side participated in purchasing, being an important influence factor of enterprises’ merging succeed or not. This paper, aimed at the different display form of the financial risk of the preparatory stage of merging, implementation stage of merging, combining stage of merging, makes a concrete analysis of the cause of formation of the financial risk in the whole enterprises’ merging course (mainly including pricing assess risk, financing risk , debts risk and financial affairs of combine risk after merging, etc.). And setting up a evaluation index system of the financial risk in enterprises’ merging on this basis. Then through Delphi Method obtaining index value, evaluating index weight according to The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) , structuring a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the financial risk of merging according to causes of financial risk, thus measures the financial risk of enterprises’ merging. Finally selecting a concrete merger instance to illustrate this model and the analyzed course, and putting forward the corresponding countermeasure to the control of the financial risk of merging.This paper is mainly based on the present realistic environment of our country to discuss the fmancial risk during the enterprise merging, and carries on the detailed discussion on the concrete causes of formation in the financial risk, as well as puts forward some views and solutions. In this paper, it mainly uses the economic mathematics research approach to quantize and appraise the financial risk in enterprises merging, including: 1, analytic approach of the factor, which uses for analyzing the causes of formation which influencing the financial risk during enterprises merging: 2, fuzzy mathematics method, which obtains index value through Delphi Method, acquires index weight through level analytic approach, then utilizes the evaluation model of fuzzy mathematics combining with a concrete instance as a illustration to explain the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index application of system of financial risk in enterprise merging .The innovations of this paper are: 1, analyzing the main influence factors of the financial risk in an all-round way in enterprises merging , and setting up the index system of appraising the financial risk in merging based on this factors; 2, using the fuzzy comprehensive appraisal method in the course of measurement and appraisal of the financial risk, and structuring a fuzzy comprehensive appraisal model of the financial risk in merging.This subject stems from the fund subsidy project of national natural science " the research of the recognition system of the risk in enterprises merging" (serial number: 70172050) and the following subject on the research.更多还原