【作者】 鞠琴；

【导师】 李杰友；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着现代科学技术的飞速发展,以计算机和通信为核心的信息技术在水文科学领域的广泛应用和人们对水文现象及其各要素间因果关系认识水平的不断提高和研究的深入,各种流域水文模型如集总式水文模型、分布式水文模型的研究得以快速发展并广泛应用于水文基本规律研究、水旱灾害防治、水资源评价与开发利用、水环境和生态系统保护、气候变化及人类活动对水资源和水环境影响等领域;各种计算方法如人工神经网络(ANN)、遗传算法、模糊逻辑、决策树等在水文科学领域广为应用。 BP(Back Propagation)模型是人工神经网络模型中最具有代表意义和广泛应用的模型。BP 模型在水文科学领域的应用虽起步较晚,在某些方面还是空白,有许多的技术、方法有待进一研究,但其优势和潜力已拓显出来。本论文拟结合生产实际,针对BP模型在水文科学领域研究和应用中的有关技术、方法和难点问题进行深入研究,主要内容如下: 1、研究了BP模型应用于水文预报的主要特点,分析了存在的问题; 2、研究了BP模型的有关算法和参数训练; 3、用BP模型模拟研究流域降雨径流过程; 4、用三水源新安江模型模拟研究流域降雨径流过程: 5、用萨克拉门托模型模拟研究流域降雨径流过程; 6、将三种模型模拟的结果进行分析比较,探讨BP模型应用于水文预报的可行性、预报精度及优缺点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the fast development of modern technology, the computer and communications are applied to the hydrological science widely used .At the same time ,the people improve themselves in the cause and effect of every hydrological phenomena factors by study deeply. The research of physical-based distributed and conceptual models are improved fast, so they can applied to every hydrological fields. Such as the rule of base hydrologic、 the control of flood and drought diseases、 water resource evaluation and water development utility 、 the protection of water environment and ecosystem、 climate change、 man’s activity. Artificial Neural Networks-ANN is kind of artificial intelligence tool which is widely applied in the fields of time series analysis, pattern identification etc. The possibility of using ANN models to simulate the rainfall-runoff relationship of urban areas will be explored first.The Back Propagation model is the most representative in Artificial Neural Networks. The Back Propagation model appeared in the field of hydrological science lateness, but it’s advantage and potential have opened up. In this application, BP Model will be set up to combine to produce and practice. The thesis presentation the technology of applied and the rub problems. The mostly content as follows:1 、 It studies the mostly characteristic of BP model in hydrological forecast and analyse the presence problems;2、 It studies some arithmetic of BP model and the problems of discipline parameter;3、 It simulates the rainfall-runoff relationship of studied basin by BP model;4、 It simulates the rainfall-runoff relationship of studied basin by XINANJIANG model;5、 It simulates the rainfall-runoff relationship of studied basin by Sacramento model;6、 The analysises of rationality and comparison are ultimately applied for the performance. Then we discuss the feasibility the precision the excellent and theshortcoming of BP model in hydrological forecast.更多还原