【作者】 连洋；

【导师】 杜晓荣；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 并购作为企业增强生命力,提高运营效率,实现对外扩张的重要渠道,在世界范围内得到企业家们的广泛认同。在我国,企业并购活动也发展迅猛。但是并购并不总是成功的,有关调查结果显示,并购失败的三类原因依次为战略不明、价格太高和整合不成功。可见企业定价在并购决策中占有非常重要的地位。 本文在相关文献研究的基础上,首先界定并购定价风险的概念,将其内容从单一的收购目标企业实际支付价格偏离期望价格的可能性及其程度扩展到由于定价的不准确而导致的并购结果不确定性。然后分析了并购定价的直接风险及间接风险这两种具体表象,并且将影响并购定价风险的因素分为估价主体、估价方法、估价环境等七个方面。其次,运用模糊数学的理论和方法以及VaR风险管理技术对企业并购的定价风险进行度量。最后研究了企业并购定价风险的控制策略,并且用两个案例来分析说明我国企业并购的定价风险及控制建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important channel for corporation to boost up the life-force, increase efficiency, expand it, M&A has been approbated all around the world. In China, M&A was developing remarkable. But, the M&A was not always succeed, according to the investigation, the reasons of failing were blurry stratagem, high price, the problem of confomrity. It is obvious that evaluation is very important in M&A.Base on the researching of literature, this paper was to define the concept of the risk of evaluation in M&A at first, extended it from price departure to the uncertainty of trade outcome. Then we analyzed the concrete representation about the direct risks and indirect risks of the risk of evaluation in M&A. We divided the influence factor of the risk of evaluation in M&A into subject of appraising, appraising method, appraising environment etc. Secondly we used fuzzy mathematics theory and technology of VaR to calculate the risk of evaluation in M&A. Finally, we studied the control strategy of the risk of evaluation in M&A, and used two case of Chinese enterprise M&A to analyzed how to control the risk of evaluation in M&A in china.更多还原