中国上市公司股利政策影响因素的实证研究

【作者】 张瑾；

【导师】 方萍；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 会计学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 股利政策是公司期末在平衡内外部相关集团利益的基础上,对提取了各种公积金后的净利润如何进行分配的决策。股利政策是现代公司理财活动的三大核心内容之一。自 1956 年 Lintner 的开创性研究揭开了股利理论研究的序幕以来,西方财务学界对股利理论和实证分析的研究成果较多,但至今尚未取得一致结果,“股利之谜”悬而未决,所以股利政策仍是目前研究的热点问题,是尚未解决的财务难题之一,这也是本文选择我国上市公司股利政策影响因素作为研究内容的理论原因。股利政策一方面是公司筹资、投资活动的逻辑延续,是其理财行为的必然结果;另一方面,恰当的股利分配政策,不仅可以树立起良好的公司形象,而且能激发广大投资者对公司持续投资的热情,从而能使公司获得长期、稳定的发展条件和机会。无论是一般的企业还是上市公司,期末都要进行收益分配,两者所不同的是如何向投资者分配收益。一般类型的企业主要依据事前的规定或约定向投资者分配收益;而上市公司则不然,在决定向股东分配股利之前,需要综合考虑各种因素,如法律性限制、契约性限制、公司内部管理的有关限制、股东的意愿等,公司是否分配、分配多少、如何分配都将直接影响公司未来的筹资能力和经营业绩,从而影响公司的发展。因此,如何制定合理的股利政策,是上市公司管理者难以解决的两难问题,以我国上市公司股利政策影响因素作为研究对象也具有现实意义。在我国股市短短十几年的发展过程中,我国上市公司管理层很少真正重视股利政策对公司财务的影响,制定股利政策的盲目性和随意性较大,股利政策波动多变,缺乏连续性,更不要说运用现代股利分配的原则和方法指导和操作公司股利分配实务。我国关于股利政策的理论研究和实证分析尚未引起人们的足够重视,已有的实证研究也多集中于上市公司股利政策市场效应的研究上,对于上市公司股利分配2政策影响因素的研究则以规范性分析为主,实证研究较少。所以,本文在借鉴国内外已取得的研究成果的基础上,选择了若干可能对我国上市公司股利政策制定产生影响的因素,建立假设,用实证研究的方法,分三个层次,即在对是否分配股利的影响因素进行分析的基础上,进一步对分配多少以及分配方式的影响因素进行分析,层层递进,对制定股利政策的影响因素进行较全面的研究。笔者希望通过本文的研究,发现我国上市公司制定股利政策的主要影响因素以及每种影响因素的影响程度是大是小、影响方向是正是负,从而为管理当局制定合理的股利分配政策和投资者进行投资决策提供参考依据。本文按照实证研究的步骤,共分为六章:第一章是绪论,主要是对股利、股利政策等相关概念进行界定,从理论原因、现实意义以及我国目前上市公司股利政策制定情况和研究现状三个方面阐述了本论题的研究意义与选题依据,最后对本文的研究范围、研究内容及逻辑结构进行简介。在第二章,我们首先对具有代表性的股利政策理论及股利政策影响因素进行简介并分析。对股利政策理论的简介和分析是从传统理论和现代理论两个方面进行的。传统理论讨论股利政策与股票价格的关系,主要包括“一鸟在手” 理论、MM 股利无关论、税差理论等。现代理论主要是研究股利政策为什么会引起股票价格的变化,包括顾客效应理论、信号理论和代理成本理论等。本文在理论上从国家宏观经济环境、股利发放限制因素、公司内部因素、股东的意愿四个方面来研究公司制定股利政策的影响因素。股利政策理论及股利政策影响因素是本文进行实证研究的理论基础;其次,本章从国外和国内两个方面对已取得的实证研究成果进行述评,寻找本文的研究空间。在第三章提出研究问题及研究假设。该章首先提出本文的研究问题,然后在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,根据股利政策理论及财务学原理,从盈利能力、资产的流动性、公司成长性、股权结构与比例、投资机会、公司规模、营运能力等方面提出十四个研究假设。第四章是实证设计,是对样本选取、变量设计、统计软件和研究方法等实证设计进行说明。3第五章是实证研究及其结果分析,是本文的核心部分。本章运用Logistic 回归、列联表分析、多元线性回归等方法分三个问题对股利政策制定的影响因素进行研究:首先,分析上市公司是否分配股利的影响因素,公司是否分配股利的影响因素有公司的盈利能力、负债水平、成长性、营运能力和每股净资产;其次分析如果要分配,分配股利的金额与哪些因素相关,股利支付率主要受公司盈利能力和上年度每股现金股利的影响;最后分析股利支付方式的影响因素,从实证分析看,现金股利和股票股利影响因素的侧重点是不同的。现金股利主要受公司盈利能力、营运能力、上年度每股现金股利和本年度每股股票股利的影响,而股票股利的影响因素主要有公司成长性、营运能力及投资状况。以上这些因素是我们在股利决策中应重点考虑的。在第六章,笔者根据本文的研究结果,提出几点思考与建议,并指出本文研究的创新之处以及局限性。股利政策受到公司内部财务状况、外部环境等许多因素的影响,这些因素不断的变化,对不同的公司影响也不同。因此,无法找到一个在任何时候对任何公司都适用的更多还原

【Abstract】 Dividend policy is an important issue in the process of profitdistribution. It is a policy decision that is how to distribute profit afterdrawing surplus accumulation funds and public welfare funds. Dividendpolicy is one of the three key elements in modern financial management.Western scholars have conducted a lot of theoretical studies and empiricalanalyses and put forward various theories with different ideas. As yet,there is not a uniform theory. So dividend policy is considered a puzzlingriddle and has puzzled the economics domain for decades. As a vital branch of the dividend policy, the study on the affectingfactors of dividend policy benefits both the company’s administrativestaff and its shareholders. On one hand dividend policy is the logiccontinuity of financing and investment activities and it is the inevitableoutcome of financing behavior;One the other hand, appropriate dividendpolicy can not only establish the good corporate image, but also excite theenthusiasm of investors. So the company can obtain long-term and steadydevelopment chance. How to make the rational dividend policy isadministrator’s awkward problem. The study of dividend policy has just begun in China. Chineselisted companies are not pay attention to dividend policy. Not to mentionuse the principle and method of modern dividend distribution policy toguide and operate the practice of dividend distribution of the company.Mostly scholars research dividend policy from the viewpoint of financialtheory in China. This kind of research lacks systematic empiricalanalyses. By using Chinese and western countries’ successful dividendtheories and empirical study methods, this thesis is an attempt to analyzeChinese listed companies’ affecting factors of dividend policy from anempirical point of view. This thesis is divided into six chapters as follows: Chapter one is introduction. This chapter defines the importantconcepts such as dividend and dividend policy. It also tells the purpose ofresearching the affecting factors of dividend policy and the framework ofthe paper. In chapter two, several representative dividend policy theories andaffecting factors are comparatively analyzed and commented on at first. Itconcludes traditional theory and modern theory. Traditional theorydiscusses the relation between dividend policy and stork price such asbird-in-the hand theory. Modern theory is mainly to study why thedividend policy causes the change of the stock price including clienteleeffect theory, signaling theory and agency cost theory. Dividend policytheories and affecting factors are the theory based of empirical study inthe paper. Secondly, the paper reviews a great deal of relevant westernand Chinese literature, finds out space for study. In chapter three, the thesis puts forward research problem andresearch hypotheses. By using Chinese and western countries’ successfulstudy, according to dividend policy theory and financial theory, the paperputs forwards fourteen research hypotheses. Chapter four is research design, which describes variables, researchmethods and so on. Chapter five is empirical study and result analysis. This is a key partof the paper. The chapter respectively obtains affecting factors ofdividend policy by using Logistic Regression, Linear Regression andCrosstabs and so on. The questions include the affecting factors aboutwhether distribution, dividend-payout ratio and methods of payment ofdividend in Chinese listed companies. These factors are that we should beconsidered especially in dividend distribution. In chapter six, the author puts forward some thoughts andsuggestions with a view to help Chinese listed companies in theirdecision on rational dividend policy and points out contributions andlimitations of this paper. Contrasting to the works that have been done, the major contributionof this thesis is: First, content innovating. The paper has an overallresearch to affecting factors of dividend policy;Secondly, it is methodinnovating. This thesis is an attempt to analyze Chinese listed companies’affecting更多还原