【作者】 张浩；

【导师】 门可佩；

【作者基本信息】 南京信息工程大学 ， 应用数学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 宏观经济是极其复杂的特大系统,随着我国社会主义市场经济的建立,应用数量经济学方法和模型研究宏观经济状态、预测经济发展趋势,具有特别重要的理论意义和实用价值。我国学者邓聚龙教授于1982年创立的灰色系统理论的研究对象是“部分信息已知,部分信息未知”的“小样本”、“贫信息”不确定性系统。它通过对“部分”已知信息的生成、开发去了解、认识现实世界,实现对系统运行行为和演化规律的正确把握和描述,为用尽可能少的数据建立起描述经济系统的模型提供了另外一种思路。20多年来,灰色系统理论在我国经济、社会各领域具有极为广泛的应用,以其强大的生命力自立于科学之林,奠定了其作为一门新兴横断学科的学术地位。灰色系统理论的蓬勃生机和广阔发展前景正日益广泛地为国际、国内各界所认识、所重视。本文首先简要介绍了国民经济的主要核算指标以及我国宏观经济发展的现状、灰色系统理论的基本方法及其进展。接下来运用上述灰色方法,研究分析我国宏观经济多方面、多层次的发展状况。具体包括以下三个方面的内容。其一,针对GM(1,1) 模型拟合预测近年宏观经济指标结果不理想的问题,提出灰色增量模型(GIM),并与灰色模型优化的最新成果结合,构建灰色新息增量优化模型(OMGI),经拟合预测结果的比较发现其精度有较大提高,能够较好地反映近年来经济高速发展的趋势。因此运用灰色新息增量优化模型对我国2005-2010年十项宏观经济指标进行预测,结果表明十六大提出的中国未来20年全面建设小康社会、国民生产总值翻两番的宏伟战略目标将在2010年左右就可实现。其二,将我国31个省、市、自治区按经济实力用灰色关联聚类方法,通过对聚类对象的排序、构造大树图、作灰色聚类图,划分为三大灰类,广东、江苏、山东分别成为我国珠三角、长三角、环渤海三大经济区的领跑者,这与我国实情相吻合,同时简要分析造成各类别之间经济实力差距,特别是东西部省份经济实力差距的原因。其三,着重解剖研究长三角经济大省-江苏省区域经济的差异,通过构建表征江苏省产业经济发展状况的指标体系,对区域产业经济各因素采用灰色关联法进行分析与评估,探索造成江苏区域经济发展不平衡的主要因素,提出各区域发展的比较优势,为缩小区域经济差距、进一步加强分类指导、促进全省经济全面发展提供科学依据,同时,这对于全国经济大省亦有典型的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Macro-economy system is a complicated huge system. With the establishment of chinese socialistic market economy, it is especially important in academic significance and practical value applying techniques and models of quantitative economics to research of macro-economic estate and forecast of economical development trend.In 1982, Prof. J. L. Deng founded the Grey System Theory, which studies the uncertain system on the "small sample", "poor information", i.e. "part information known, part information unknown" we have. Through creating and excavating the limited information, we could understand the real world, describe its evolvement rule and grasp its running behavior exactly. Grey model has no special request or restrict on the original experimental data and its distribution. Besides, it is easy to compute and learn. After 20 years’ development, Grey System has been applied in many scientific fields including industry, agriculture, society, economy, traffic, energy sources, geography, geology, petroleum, earthquake, meteorology, irrigation works, environment, zoology, iatrology, physical culture, education, military affairs, law and finance, etc. It also has solved large mount of practical problems concerned with production, life and scientific research. During the time, Grey System itself has formed as a new subject of a self-contained structure system through incessant development.This paper predicts the future data of macro-economic indexes of our homeland during 2005-2010, divides 31 provinces and economic regions to several clustering analysis, analyses and evaluates the relational factors which influence Jiangsu development of regional industry economy by grey system methods, which is based on the Optimization Model of Grey Increment with New Information (OMGI), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). On the basis of prediction and evaluated results, it analyses existed problems in economy developing according to correlative references, offers some useful information for constituting economic policy by summarizing related experiences.更多还原