【作者】 陈艳；

【导师】 陈绍军；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 本文作者在前人对移民学理论研究以及通过阅读文献掌握国内外水库移民学科研究现状的基础上，吸收水库移民的最新实践成果，运用经济学、社会学、管理学的基本理论，详细研究了水库移民安置风险及控制理论。 本文系统研究了水库移民安置风险管理问题。首先，在明确水库移民、水库移民安置风险等概念的基础上，对导致水库移民安置风险的原因进行分析，并且进行风险识别，把水库移民安置过程中面临的所有风险一一识别出来，并进行分类。其次，提出了水库移民安置风险评估理论。在风险识别的基础上，通过建立定性和定量的评估指标体系，对风险因素进行评估。本文首次系统提出用德尔菲法定性评估水库移民安置风险，以及首次提出用模糊综合评判来量化水库移民安置风险程度，根据不同指标的综合结果，及时估量移民所经受的风险程度，以便随时采取相应的措施来减少水库移民安置风险，改善移民生存与发展环境，以确保社会安定和地区经济的稳定持续发展。最后，针对水库移民安置风险，提出一系列风险控制的措施。本文重点提出建立水库移民社会保障体系，从保障对象、保障内容、保障制度和保障方式四个方面进行详细的分析。并且通过珊溪水利枢纽工程移民的实例，首次从水库移民社会保障体系基金的建立、筹集渠道、筹集模式方面着手，探讨水库移民社会保障体系的建立，为切实解决我国水库移民安置风险问题进行了有益的探索。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the available achievements in resettlement and rehabilitation research, and absorb the latest practice achievement of the reservoir resettlement, the author of this article specifically investigates the rehabilitation risk and control theory by applying the basic theories of economics, sociology and management.The article analyses the rehabilitation risk control of reservoir resettlement system. Firstly, on the basis of specifying the concept of reservoir resettler and rehabilitation risk, the reason that bring to rehabilitation risk of reservoir resettler is analyzed, then all risks that the resettler faces are discerned. Secondly, the risk assessment theory of reservoir resettler is put forward. The assessment is divided into determining the nature and quantitative assessment mainly. It is pointed out that appraisal risk with Delphi systematically, and judge resettlement’s risk of quantitative appraisal risk with fuzzily synthetically for the first time. By establishing two index systems of rehabilitation risk, the overall results of different indices can be obtained. Based on these results, the degree of rehabilitation risk faced by the resettlement can be estimated on time. Relevant methods can be employed to reduce the risk of reservoir resettlement system on time, and improve the living and development condition of resettlers. It can also ensure the social stabilization and the stable and sustained development of social economy. Thirdly, the countermeasure of handling risk is put forward. The topic of building the resettlement security systems is put forward for the first time from security target, security content, security system and security way. This article discusses social security system foundation, raise channel and fund for raise mode by the typical cases of ShanXi reservoir for the first time, and explore the exhaustive method of the resettlement’s rehabilitation risk.更多还原